Nearly ten years ago, soon after Britons had voted to leave the European Union, the boss of the London Stock Exchange outlined the catastrophe(大灾难) threatening their country’s financial-services industry. If Brexit cost the City of London its licence to clear trades in euro-denominated securities, said Xavier Rolet, “a very minimum” of 100,000 jobs might be at risk(处于危险中). At an appearance in 2017 before Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee, Mr Rolet raised his estimate(估计) to 232,000. Britain then had 1.1m people in financial-services jobs, or 3.5% of the workforce, producing 7% of its economic output and generating 11% of tax revenues.
大约十年前，在英国人投票决定脱离欧盟后不久，伦敦证券交易所的老板概述了威胁该国金融服务业的大灾难。Xavier Rolet说，如果脱欧让伦敦金融城失去清算欧元计价证券交易的牌照，“至少”有10万个工作岗位可能面临风险。在2017年出席议会财政特别委员会时，Rolet先生将他的估计提高到23.2万。当时，英国有110万人从事金融服务业，占劳动力的3.5%，创造了7%的经济产出，贡献了11%的税收。
Happily, the disaster never arrived. The industry still employs 1.1m people, who now account for 8% of the economy, or £224bn ($300bn) a year. That is 20% more, in real terms, than when Mr Rolet issued his warning. And the City in particular has prospered. The EU decided not to take an axe to(对……大刀阔斧地削减) Europe’s financial plumbing after all. Within the Square Mile that bounds London’s historic financial centre, 225,000 people worked in finance in 2024. This was 36,000 more than in 2019, despite the one-two punch(连续两次打击) of Brexit and the covid-19 pandemic. Another 181,000 worked in auxiliary fields such as law and accountancy, up by 51,000 over the same period.
幸运的是，这场灾难从未到来。该行业仍然雇佣了110万人，如今占经济产出的8%，即每年2240亿英镑（3000亿美元）。按实际价值计算，这比Rolet先生发出警告时增长了20%。而金融城尤其繁荣。欧盟最终决定不对欧洲的金融管道下手。在划定伦敦历史金融中心范围的平方英里内，2024年有22.5万人在金融业工作，比2019年多了3.6万，尽管遭受了脱欧和新冠疫情的连续打击。另有18.1万人从事法律和会计等辅助领域，同期增加了5.1万。
Numbers matter in London’s financial district; the sense that its buzz(热闹气氛；热议) is back matters more. Elbow your way through crowds of gilet-enthusiasts clutching pints on a spring evening, and previous fears that working from home would turn the City into a ghost town seem laughable. Plenty more prop up(支持；支撑) bars in Canary Wharf and the West End—the Square Mile’s spiritual extensions. They are not just there for the nightlife (though it helps, especially for bankers who might otherwise have been relegated to Frankfurt). For the first time in years financiers are also buzzing about London as a place to do business.
数字在伦敦金融区很重要；但其热闹氛围回归的感觉更为重要。在春夜，挤过一群群穿着背心、紧握酒杯的爱好者，先前关于居家办公会让金融城变成鬼城的恐惧显得可笑。还有更多人在金丝雀码头和西区——平方英里的精神延伸地带——支撑着酒吧。他们不仅仅是为了夜生活（尽管这有帮助，尤其是对那些原本可能被降级到法兰克福的银行家而言）。多年来，金融家们第一次也在热议伦敦作为一个做生意的场所。
Hard times
艰难时期
A tale of two cities
双城记