You can walk many streets in the Ebbw Fach valley(威尔士南部埃布法赫山谷) in south Wales—and, because of the steepness(陡峭) of the hills, take many breaths—before spotting a political poster. The Welsh parliament, known as the Senedd(威尔士议会), holds elections on May 7th. It is a powerful body, responsible for education and health and able to vary income-tax rates. Yet the election seems to have generated little excitement(激发不了什么热情). You would certainly not sense that an event of global significance(全球意义) is about to occur.
在威尔士南部的埃布法赫山谷，你可以走很多条街道——因为山势陡峭，你需要喘很多口气——才能看到一张政治海报。被称为Senedd的威尔士议会将于5月7日举行选举。它是一个权力很大的机构，负责教育和卫生，并能调整所得税税率。然而，这场选举似乎并未激起多少热情。你肯定感觉不到一件具有全球意义的事件即将发生。
Political scientists at Cardiff University reckon(认为、估算) that the Labour Party has dominated Wales longer than any party has dominated any democracy(统治威尔士的时间比任何政党在民主国家中的统治都长). Labour has won a plurality(相对多数票) of Welsh seats in every general election since 1922, and has won every Senedd election since that body was created in 1999. For historical consistency, the party beats the Christian Social Union in Bavaria(巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟), the South Tyrolean People’s Party(南蒂罗尔人民党) in Italy and the Democrats in the American “solid South(坚固南方)” (who cheated by disenfranchising black people).
卡迪夫大学的政治学家认为，工党统治威尔士的时间比任何政党在任何一个民主国家中的统治时间都要长。自1922年以来，工党在每一次大选中都赢得了威尔士的多数席位，并且自1999年Senedd成立以来赢得了每一次Senedd选举。从历史延续性来看，该党胜过巴伐利亚的基督教社会联盟、意大利的南蒂罗尔人民党以及美国“坚固南方”的民主党（后者曾通过剥夺黑人选举权作弊）。
If the polls are right, Labour’s run(执政期、持续期) will end next week. Plaid Cymru, a nationalist party, is expected to win the Senedd elections; Reform uk, a right-wing populist party, might come second. That would shake Labour and Britain’s prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer. Although fewer than one in 20 Britons live in Wales, it is central to the party’s identity. Labour’s first leader, Keir Hardie(基尔·哈迪), represented a Welsh seat. So did the party’s first prime minister, Ramsay MacDonald(拉姆齐·麦克唐纳). If you could cut the Labour Party, it would bleed Welsh red.(如果你能割开工党，它会流出威尔士红色的血。)
如果民调正确，工党的统治将在下周结束。民族主义政党威尔士党预计将赢得Senedd选举；右翼民粹主义政党改革英国党可能位居第二。这将震动工党和英国首相基尔·斯塔默爵士。虽然只有不到二十分之一的英国人居住在威尔士，但威尔士对工党的身份认同至关重要。工党第一任领袖基尔·哈迪曾代表威尔士选区。该党第一任首相拉姆齐·麦克唐纳也是如此。如果你能割开工党，它会流出威尔士红色的血。
Senedd of the wedge
Senedd的分裂楔子