
It is no secret that Kevin Warsh has long coveted(觊觎,渴望得到) the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. He has at last achieved his goal. The Department of Justice said on April 24th that it would drop its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the current chairman, a step a swing-vote senator had demanded before advancing Mr Warsh’s nomination. The new man is now all but certain(几乎确定,十拿九稳) to be confirmed. The press conference Mr Powell gave on April 29th should be his last in the role.
凯文·沃什长期以来觊觎美联储主席之位,这已不是秘密。他终于得偿所愿。司法部于4月24日表示,将放弃对现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的刑事调查,这是在推进沃什提名前一位摇摆参议员所要求的一步。这位新人现在几乎肯定能获得确认。鲍威尔于4月29日举行的新闻发布会将是他任内的最后一次。
Mr Warsh was not The Economist’s preferred choice to become the world’s most important central banker. In chasing the job he changed from a long-time inflation hawk(通胀鹰派,主张加息抑制通胀的人) into a rate-cutting dove. He is not as wonkish as Chris Waller, another erstwhile candidate, has little training in economics and has for over a decade made over-egged and analytically hazy criticisms of the central bank, building a manifesto for the chairmanship that lacks rigour.(他没有另一位前候选人克里斯·沃勒那么技术官僚,经济学训练有限,而且十多年来对央行的批评过分夸张、分析含糊,为自己的主席之位构建了一份缺乏严谨的宣言。) Sometimes, too, he has behaved cynically. In his confirmation hearing on April 21st he conspicuously refused to rebut the lie that the presidential election in 2020 was stolen from Donald Trump.
沃什并非《经济学人》心目中成为世界最重要央行行长的首选。在追逐这一职位的过程中,他从长期的通胀鹰派变成了降息鸽派。他没有另一位前候选人克里斯·沃勒那么技术官僚,经济学训练有限,而且十多年来对央行的批评过分夸张、分析含糊,为自己的主席之位构建了一份缺乏严谨的宣言。有时他的行为也显得愤世嫉俗。在4月21日的确认听证会上,他公然拒绝驳斥2020年总统选举从唐纳德·特朗普手中窃取的谎言。
Yet none of that will determine where Mr Warsh ranks in the pantheon(万神殿,指杰出人物群体) of America’s central bankers. The real test is how he deals with Mr Trump. The president’s demands for lower interest rates—despite five years of above-target inflation—mean that the Fed is facing its greatest crisis in 50 years. Mr Warsh once gave a speech entitled “An Ode to Independence” and at his hearing emphasised the importance of the bank’s credibility(可信度,信誉). If in office he withstands the president and steers the bank to safer waters(引导银行驶向更安全的水域,比喻化解危机), he could count as one of the greats.
然而,这些都不会决定沃什在美国央行行长万神殿中的地位。真正的考验是他如何应对特朗普总统。总统要求降低利率——尽管通胀连续五年高于目标——意味着美联储正面临50年来最严重的危机。沃什曾发表过题为《独立颂》的演讲,并在听证会上强调了央行信誉的重要性。如果在任期间他能顶住总统压力,将银行引向更安全的水域,他可能跻身伟大之列。