SoMEONE WAS sniffing the butane. Energy experts have long warned that the war in Iran was causing the biggest oil-supply shock in history. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in(关闭、封存（产量）) 14m barrels a day of oil. To destroy that much demand, they said, the price of Brent crude should be more than double its pre-war level, at well over $150 a barrel. But oil traders were in a stupor(处于麻木或恍惚状态). As recently as April 17th prices were below $90 a barrel. Over the past week, on talk of renewed fighting, they have been waking up. On April 30th prices spiked(急剧上升（尤指价格）) above $125.
有人嗅到了不对劲。能源专家早已警告，伊朗战争正引发史上最大的石油供应冲击。霍尔木兹海峡的关闭每天封锁了1400万桶石油。他们说，要摧毁如此大量的需求，布伦特原油价格应比战前水平翻倍以上，远高于每桶150美元。但石油交易商仍处于麻木状态。就在4月17日，油价还低于每桶90美元。过去一周，随着新一轮战斗的消息传来，他们开始苏醒。4月30日，价格飙升至每桶125美元以上。
Unfortunately, as bad as things are, the disconnect(脱节、割裂) with reality endures. Not only may spot prices have further to climb, but the oil-futures market, in which speculators bet on where the oil price is going, says prices will fall every month for the rest of the year, ending 2026 at about $88.(不仅现货价格可能还有进一步上涨空间，而且石油期货市场（投机者在此押注油价走势）预测今年剩余时间油价将逐月下跌，到2026年底收于约88美元。) That implies most of this shock will soon be reversed. If so, traders must believe three things are true: that America and Iran will soon strike a peace deal; that their agreement will reopen Hormuz; and that, soon after the strait is clear, petrol and jet fuel will once again be plentiful. All those are in doubt.
不幸的是，尽管情况已经如此糟糕，与现实脱节的现象仍在持续。不仅现货价格可能还有进一步上涨空间，而且石油期货市场（投机者在此押注油价走势）预测今年剩余时间油价将逐月下跌，到2026年底收于约88美元。这意味着大部分冲击将很快逆转。如果是这样，交易者必须相信三件事是真的：美国与伊朗将很快达成和平协议；协议将重开霍尔木兹海峡；海峡畅通后不久，汽油和喷气燃料将再次充足。所有这些都有疑问。
One thing everybody should be able to agree on is that for the strait to stay shut would be a disaster. At the start of the war, lots of oil was in stocks or tankers at sea. But the ships that passed through Hormuz before the conflict had all docked by April 20th. Oil stocks will soon be at their lowest since satellite tracking began in 2018. Volumes of petrol, diesel and jet fuel at sea are already so low that gaps in supply will be inevitable. And in America petrol demand is about to surge, as the summer tempts people to get in their cars and drive.
所有人都应该同意的一点是，海峡持续关闭将是一场灾难。战争开始时，大量石油储存在库存或海上油轮中。但冲突前通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只已于4月20日前全部靠港。石油库存将很快降至2018年卫星追踪开始以来的最低水平。海上汽油、柴油和喷气燃料的储量已经如此之低，供应缺口将不可避免。而在美国，随着夏天诱惑人们驾车出行，汽油需求即将激增。
It will never happen, will it?
这永远不会发生，不是吗？