TO SAM WATSON, farming has always been a gamble(赌博，冒险). Brought up in southern Georgia, he learned the risks from a young age: farmers invest millions of dollars each year to plant a crop, and drought or disease can wipe out(彻底消除，毁灭) profits in an instant(瞬间，立刻). These days, though, he reckons the odds(可能性，胜算) are worse than when his father was at it. Mr Watson, who moonlights as(兼职担任) a Republican state senator, returned home from Atlanta just in time to put eggplant (aubergine), bell pepper and squash seeds in the ground. Soon dozens of workers will arrive for a harvest season that threatens to be(预示着将会是) his last. “We used to just pray for rain(祈求雨水),” he says. “Now we’re praying on geopolitics(在地缘政治上祈祷), too.”
致萨姆·沃森：种地从来都是一场赌博。他在佐治亚州南部长大，从小就深知风险：农民每年投资数百万美元种植作物，干旱或疾病可能在瞬间吞噬利润。然而如今，他感觉胜算比父亲那辈更糟。沃森先生身兼共和党州参议员，刚从亚特兰大赶回家中，正好赶上将茄子、甜椒和南瓜种子播入土地。很快，数十名工人将抵达参加收获季，这可能是他最后一次收获。'我们过去只祈祷下雨，'他说，'现在还得祈祷地缘政治。'
Donald Trump has waged(发动（战争）) various literal(字面的，实际的) and metaphorical(比喻的，隐喻的) wars in his second term, but two have been especially bad for Americans: his trade war with the world and his actual war with Iran. Every industry that makes things—from chemicals to cars to crops—suffered at least a little when Mr Trump slapped tariffs on(突然加征关税) other countries and some of them retaliated(报复). Now, with the conflict in Iran unresolved and the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, those same businesses face higher costs. Few have suffered more than American farmers.
唐纳德·特朗普在第二任期发动了各种字面意义和比喻意义上的战争，但有两场对美国人而言尤为糟糕：他与世界的贸易战以及他与伊朗的实战。当特朗普对其他国家加征关税并引发部分国家报复时，每一个制造物品的行业——从化学品到汽车再到农作物——都至少受到了一些冲击。如今，随着伊朗冲突未解决、霍尔木兹海峡仍被封锁，这些企业面临更高的成本。几乎没有哪个行业比美国农民受损更严重。
Even before Mr Trump took office, they were grappling with(努力应对，挣扎) record costs. In just five years, land prices had risen by 6%, seeds by 18%, labour by 50% and interest expenses by 73%. When the president announced sweeping(全面的，广泛的) tariffs on “Liberation Day(解放日（特朗普宣布关税的日期）)” last year, farmers’ already fragile budgets became harder to balance. As the price of steel and aluminium soared, so did the cost of machinery such as tractors and sprayers. In a February earnings call, John Deere, the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, said it had absorbed $600m in tariff-related costs in 2025 and expected that to double this year. Dave Peters, a semi-retired corn (maize) farmer near Harlan, Iowa, reckons farmers now need four times as many acres to make the same profit. Watching his son and granddaughter ride a tractor across his field, he reflects on how much it takes to get a farm going: “It’s costing half a million just out the door.”
甚至在特朗普上任之前，农民就在与创纪录的成本作斗争。短短五年内，土地价格上涨了6%，种子上涨18%，劳动力上涨50%，利息支出上涨73%。当总统在去年'解放日'宣布全面关税时，农民本已脆弱的预算更难平衡。随着钢铁和铝价格飙升，拖拉机和喷雾器等机械的成本也随之上涨。在2月份的财报电话会议上，全球最大的农机制造商约翰迪尔表示，2025年已消化了6亿美元的关税相关成本，预计今年将翻倍。艾奥瓦州哈伦附近半退休的玉米种植者戴夫·彼得斯估计，农民现在需要四倍于前的土地才能赚取同样的利润。看着儿子和孙女开着拖拉机穿过田地，他感慨道：'起步就要花掉五十万美元。'
