HOW EASILY could a malicious(恶意的) person with no scientific expertise and an axe to grind(有个人企图) create and spread a nasty pathogen? The bar is constantly being lowered. Advances in genetic sequencing have made recipes for biological agents widely available; gene-editing tools such as CRISPR could theoretically transform innocuous(无害的) bugs into something lethal; and the tool kits needed to assemble and grow dangerous proteins and viruses can be bought for a few hundred dollars online.
一个心怀叵测、毫无科学专业知识的人，能有多容易制造并传播一种危险的病原体？门槛在不断降低。基因测序的进步使得生物制剂的配方广泛可得；像CRISPR这样的基因编辑工具理论上可以将无害的细菌转化为致命的东西；而组装和培养危险蛋白质和病毒所需的工具包，只需几百美元就能在网上买到。
Now large language models (LLMs) have entered the mix. Trained on a wealth of scientific knowledge, including specialised virological and bacteriological information, such models could turn novice users into overnight experts(一夜之间成为专家), worry biosecurity specialists, who have grown more fearful in recent months. Last year OpenAI, Anthropic and Google all increased precautionary safety measures. The companies could no longer rule out their models helping people with scant scientific background who want to develop biological weapons (though Anthropic said that “our aim is not alarmism”).(这些公司不再排除其模型帮助那些科学背景匮乏、想要开发生物武器的人的可能性（尽管Anthropic表示“我们的目的不是危言耸听”）。) It is natural to wonder whether the world is on the cusp of(处于...的边缘) a nightmarish age of AI-enabled bioterrorism—and, if so, what to do about it.
现在，大型语言模型（LLM）也加入了进来。这些模型接受了丰富的科学知识训练，包括专门的病毒学和细菌学信息，因此可能将新手用户迅速变成专家。这让生物安全专家感到担忧，他们最近几个月越来越恐惧。去年，OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌都加强了预防性安全措施。这些公司不再排除其模型帮助那些科学背景匮乏、想要开发生物武器的人的可能性（尽管Anthropic表示“我们的目的不是危言耸听”）。人们自然会思考，世界是否正处在一个由AI引发的噩梦般的生物恐怖主义时代的边缘——如果是这样，该怎么办。
A would-be(想要成为...的) bioterrorist wishing to obtain a suitable pathogen would certainly be able to get some useful information out of an artificial-intelligence model. In December 2025 Britain’s AI Security Institute reported that major models could reliably generate scientific protocols(实验方案) to synthesise viruses and bacteria out of genetic fragments(从基因片段中). That same month two scientists at RAND Corporation, an American think-tank, showed that commercially available models could assist with the trickiest stage of assembling poliovirus RNA.
一个想要获取合适病原体的潜在生物恐怖分子，当然能够从人工智能模型中获得一些有用的信息。2025年12月，英国AI安全研究所报告称，主流模型能够可靠地生成从基因片段中合成病毒和细菌的科学方案。同月，美国智库兰德公司的两位科学家表明，商用模型可以协助组装脊髓灰质炎病毒RNA这一最棘手的阶段。
Ups and downs
起起伏伏
