
Small southern states are rarely the focus of American politics. But this week Tennessee took centre stage(成为焦点). On April 29th the Supreme Court delivered its third big blow to the Voting Rights Act. By a 6-3 vote in Louisiana v. Callais, the justices declared that electoral maps can no longer be challenged on the grounds of(以……为理由) race—say, by arguing that district lines unfairly dilute(稀释,削弱) black votes—as long as the mapmakers claim to have drawn them strictly for partisan(党派的,有偏袒的) gain. The decision unleash(释放,引发)ed a scramble: on May 6th Tennessee politicians released a map that carves up Memphis, the state’s second city, into three other ruby-red congressional districts. “This is a moral outrage as well as a political one,” says Rachel Campbell, the head of Tennessee’s Democrats. “Martin Luther King died there in pursuit of civil rights.”
美国南部小州很少成为全国政治焦点,但本周田纳西州成为了中心。4月29日,最高法院对《投票权法》给予了第三次重大打击。在路易斯安那州诉卡莱斯案中,大法官们以6:3的投票结果宣布,只要选区划分者声称严格出于党派利益而绘制地图,就不能再以种族为由挑战选区地图——例如,声称选区划分不公平地稀释了黑人选票。这一裁决引发了一场争夺:5月6日,田纳西州政客公布了一张地图,将该州第二大城市孟菲斯分割成另外三个深红色国会选区。田纳西州民主党主席雷切尔·坎贝尔说:“这既是道德上的愤慨,也是政治上的愤慨。马丁·路德·金正是在那里为争取民权而牺牲的。”
The ruling lands in the middle of a sordid(肮脏的,卑鄙的) bout of mid-decade redistricting. The race for politicians to pick their voters began when Texas gave in to Donald Trump’s push to redraw the state’s congressional map to add five more Republican seats. Democrats retaliate(报复)d in California, where voters bless(批准,祝福)ed new district lines to neutralise the Texas grab(抵消德克萨斯州的夺取). The frenzy(狂热,疯狂) then spread to Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Since Callais dropped, Republicans have called for doing away with all Democratic districts in the South. Lawmakers in Louisiana are meeting to pass a map that cuts New Orleans up like Memphis. Courts are weigh(权衡,考虑)ing a plan signed by Ron DeSantis that would give Republicans 24 of 28 seats in Florida, where 30% of voters are Democrats.
这一裁决正值一场肮脏的十年中选区重新划分之战。政客挑选选民的竞赛始于德克萨斯州屈服于唐纳德·特朗普的压力,重新绘制该州的国会地图,以增加五个共和党席位。民主党在加利福尼亚州进行了报复,该州选民批准了新的选区界线以抵消德克萨斯州的行动。随后,狂热蔓延到密苏里州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和弗吉尼亚州。自卡莱斯案裁决公布以来,共和党人呼吁取消南方所有民主党选区。路易斯安那州的立法者正开会通过一张像分割孟菲斯那样分割新奥尔良的地图。法院正在权衡罗恩·德桑蒂斯签署的一项计划,该计划将使共和党在佛罗里达州获得28个席位中的24个,而该州30%的选民是民主党人。
The Economist’s election model predicts that Democrats will gain more than 20 seats in the House, which means these Callais-inspired gerrymanders(受卡莱斯案启发的选区操纵) will probably not be enough for Republicans to hold the chamber in November. But the outcome of closer elections in the future could well depend on which party is willing to rig(操纵(不正当手段)) the maps more ruthlessly(无情地,残酷地).
《经济学人》的选举模型预测民主党将赢得众议院20多个席位,这意味着这些受卡莱斯案启发的选区操纵可能不足以让共和党在11月保住众议院。但未来更激烈选举的结果很可能取决于哪个政党更愿意残酷地操纵选区地图。