Ten weeks into the Iran war, the mystery is deepening. Every day the Strait of Hormuz(霍尔木兹海峡) remains closed, nearly 14m barrels of oil—14% of global output—are lost. At least 2bn barrels will probably disappear from this year’s total even if the strait reopens today. Yet Brent crude(布伦特原油), at $106 a barrel, fetches(卖得，获得（价格）) much less than the $129 it hit in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and nowhere near the $150-200 analysts predicted if the Iran war dragged on(拖延，持续过久).
伊朗战争已持续十周，谜团愈发加深。每天霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭，近1400万桶石油——占全球产量的14%——就此损失。即使海峡今天重新开放，今年总产量也至少会减少20亿桶。然而，布伦特原油价格为每桶106美元，远低于2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后达到的129美元，更远低于分析师预测的若伊朗战争持续则会达到的150-200美元。
One reason is oil traders’ perpetual(永久的，持续的) optimism about a diplomatic breakthrough. “Front-month” Brent—the nearest futures contract and global benchmark—locks in(锁定（价格）) a price for oil to be loaded onto tankers in roughly two months’ time. Whenever Donald Trump hints at an imminent deal, markets put off pricing in(推迟定价计入) further disruption. But lately even spot prices have calmed: “dated” Brent, which tracks crude loading in the coming days, traded at $25 above front-month(近月期货) futures in early April; now the gap is just a few dollars (see chart 1).
一个原因是石油交易商对外交突破始终抱有乐观态度。“近月”布伦特——即最近的期货合约及全球基准——锁定了大约两个月后装船石油的价格。每当唐纳德·特朗普暗示即将达成协议时，市场就会推迟对未来中断的定价。但最近连现货价格都平静下来：“即期”布伦特（追踪未来几天内装船的原油）在4月初曾比近月期货高出25美元，现在价差仅为几美元（见图表1）。
Two forces explain why the panic has faded. First, non-Gulf producers have turbocharged(涡轮增压，引申为大幅提升) exports. Net of imports(扣除进口后（净出口）), in the four weeks to May 10th Canada shipped 400,000 more barrels per day (b/d) of crude and refined products than a year earlier. Venezuela and Norway each added 200,000 b/d; Brazil, 100,000 b/d. Most remarkably, America put on(增加（产量/出口）) 3.8m b/d, according to Vortexa, a ship-tracker(船舶追踪机构); at nearly 9m b/d, its net petroleum exports in those four weeks were the highest ever (see chart 2).
两股力量解释了恐慌为何消退。首先，非海湾产油国大幅提升了出口。净出口方面，在截至5月10日的四周内，加拿大每日原油及成品油出口量比去年同期增加了40万桶。委内瑞拉和挪威各增加了20万桶/日；巴西增加了10万桶/日。最引人注目的是，根据船舶追踪机构Vortexa的数据，美国增加了380万桶/日；其在这四周内的净石油出口量接近900万桶/日，是有史以来最高的（见图表2）。
