THE LARGEST supply shock(供应冲击) in petroleum history is getting larger fast. Some 2bn barrels, or 5% of the world’s yearly oil supply, have already been lost because the Strait of Hormuz(霍尔木兹海峡) is shut. Every day it remains closed the deficit(缺口；赤字) grows by 14m barrels. Since peace talks between America and Iran have stalled(停滞；陷入僵局), a reopening still seems many days away.
石油史上最大的供应冲击正在迅速加剧。由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭，大约20亿桶石油——相当于全球年供应量的5%——已经损失。海峡每关闭一天，缺口就增加1400万桶。由于美伊和平谈判陷入僵局，重新开放似乎还需多日。
Yet oil markets look strangely calm. Brent crude futures(布伦特原油期货), at $105 a barrel, have fallen from April highs of nearly $120. They remain below the peak of $129 in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Spot prices have slid even more, implying that crude oil is more plentiful than it was earlier in the war. The surprising mini-glut(小型供应过剩) is real—but do not take too much comfort from it. A full-blown energy disaster(全面爆发的能源灾难) may be weeks away.
然而，石油市场却出奇地平静。布伦特原油期货价格为每桶105美元，已从4月份近120美元的高位回落。仍低于2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后达到的129美元峰值。现货价格跌幅更大，表明原油比战争初期更为充足。这种令人意外的小型供应过剩是真实存在的——但不要因此过于安心。一场全面爆发的能源灾难可能就在几周之后。
Two unlikely saviours(救星；拯救者) are shielding the world from catastrophe. One is America. Its exports of crude and refined products(成品油), net of imports(扣除进口量（净值）), have surged to 9m barrels per day (b/d)—nearly 4m b/d above the level at the same time last year. That reflects the agility(敏捷；灵活) of America’s energy firms, which have harnessed(利用；驾驭) their stocks, refineries and terminals to serve more high-paying customers abroad. It also confirms the usefulness of America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the government began tapping in March. These extra barrels allowed shipments abroad to rise without crimping(抑制；阻碍) domestic supply.
两位意外的救星正在庇护世界免遭灾难。一是美国。其原油和成品油出口（扣除进口后）已飙升至每日900万桶——比去年同期高出近400万桶/日。这反映了美国能源公司的灵活性，它们利用库存、炼油厂和终端来服务更多海外高价客户。这也证实了美国战略石油储备的效用，政府于3月开始动用。这些额外的石油使得海外出货量增加而不影响国内供应。
