Convulsing bond markets mean different things to different people. If you run a government, it is plainly bad that governments’ borrowing costs are shooting up—as they are across the world. The yield on Japan’s 30-year debt has risen above 4%, its highest ever; America’s has topped 5%; Britain’s is chugging fitfully towards 6%. Since mortgage rates tend to move in line with these yields, anyone looking for a new one will also feel the pinch(感到手头拮据). For bond traders, in contrast, the past few weeks have been quite the thrill. A decade ago near-zero interest rates seemed to have permanently shoved their market into the deep freeze. Now it is red hot.
动荡的债券市场对不同的人意味着不同的事情。如果你管理着一个政府，政府的借贷成本正在飙升——全球都是如此——这显然很糟糕。日本30年期国债收益率已升至4%以上，创历史新高；美国30年期国债收益率已突破5%；英国30年期国债收益率则艰难地向6%攀升。由于抵押贷款利率往往与这些收益率同步变动，任何寻求新抵押贷款的人也会感到压力。相比之下，对于债券交易员来说，过去几周却相当刺激。十年前，接近零的利率似乎将他们的市场永久地推入了冰封状态。而现在，市场热火朝天。
It is not hard to see why. Inflation and yawning government deficits have worried investors for years, and the Iran war is making both problems worse. Bank of America conducts a monthly survey of global fund managers; in the latest, 40% of respondents said an inflationary wave was the biggest tail risk(尾部风险) for markets. Despite this (or in explanation of it), 78% expected America’s Federal Reserve to either cut rates or leave them unchanged over the next year. They have acted accordingly, slashing holdings of cash and bonds, while raising their equity allocations by more than in any other month of the survey’s 25-year history. This is just what you might do if you think money is too loose.
原因不难看出。通货膨胀和巨额的政府赤字多年来一直令投资者担忧，而伊朗战争使这两个问题更加严重。美国银行每月对全球基金经理进行一项调查；在最新的调查中，40%的受访者表示通胀浪潮是市场最大的尾部风险。尽管如此（或者说正因为如此），78%的受访者预计美联储将在未来一年内降息或维持利率不变。他们已据此采取行动，大幅削减现金和债券持有量，同时将其股票配置比例提高到该调查25年历史中任何其他月份都要高的水平。这正是你认为货币过于宽松时可能采取的做法。
Given all this, it may seem puzzling that one market hasn’t moved more. Inflation-linked government bonds (“linkers”, or “TIPs” in America) offer the ultimate protection against investors’ fears: payments that are guaranteed to rise by the same amount as consumer prices. They therefore offer real yields, as opposed to the nominal ones on ordinary bonds, at which inflation nibbles away(逐渐侵蚀). The nominal yield minus the real one—for, say, ten-year American Treasuries—is widely thought of as the average inflation rate investors expect over the bonds’ remaining life.
鉴于这一切，有一个市场没有出现更大变动似乎令人费解。通胀挂钩政府债券（即“linkers”，在美国称为“TIPs”）为投资者的担忧提供了终极保护：其支付额保证与消费者价格同步上涨。因此，它们提供实际收益率，而普通债券的名义收益率则会被通胀蚕食。例如，10年期美国国债的名义收益率减去实际收益率，被广泛视为投资者预期在债券剩余期限内平均通胀率。