
A presentation to parliament on fiscal policy might seem like a dry affair meant for bean-counters(会计,精打细算的人(贬义)). Yet this year’s address in Indonesia generated high drama(引发高潮/戏剧性场面). In an unprecedented intervention(前所未有的干预), Prabowo Subianto, the president, took to the podium(走上讲台). But instead of reassuring markets that his administration had heard their concerns—especially over the rupiah, now at an all-time low, he launched into a defiant broadside.(但他非但没有安抚市场,让市场相信他的政府听到了他们的担忧——尤其是对处于历史最低点的卢比的担忧——反而发表了一番挑衅式的猛烈抨击。) “We no longer want to be a victim and endure unfair treatment of other countries to our nation,” he bellowed(怒吼,咆哮). “I am here to say: it has come to an end.”
向议会作财政政策报告听起来可能是一桩枯燥乏味、专为会计们准备的事情。然而今年印尼的这场演讲却上演了高潮。在一次前所未有的干预中,总统普拉博沃·苏比安托走上讲台。但他没有安抚市场,让市场相信他的政府听到了他们的担忧——尤其是对处于历史最低点的卢比的担忧——而是发出了一番挑衅式的猛烈抨击。“我们不再希望成为受害者,忍受其他国家对我们国家的不公平对待,”他怒吼道,“我在此宣布:这一切必须结束。”
Mr Prabowo’s main pronouncement(声明,公告) was over the creation of Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), a new state-owned agency under Danantara, his sovereign-wealth fund. Citing Indonesia’s persistently low tax-to-GDP ratio(税收占GDP比重), Mr Prabowo gave DSI the task of quash(镇压,废除)ing practices that let Indonesian resource-extraction firms pay less in tax. These include selling underpriced commodities to affiliates in Singapore, which are then resold to the rest of the world at a mark-up. Mr Prabowo claimed that systematic under-invoicing(低开发票) had cost the country over $900bn since the 1990s. To stop this, DSI will act as the sole buyer(唯一买家) from Indonesian commodity producers, selling their wares to global customers. It will initially cover coal, palm oil and certain nickel products—for all of which Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter. In addition, 100% of foreign-exchange proceeds must now be deposited into state-owned banks, in an effort to prop up(支撑,扶持) the rupiah against the dollar.
普拉博沃先生的主要声明是关于成立Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia(DSI),这是其主权财富基金Danantara旗下的一个新国有机构。他援引印尼持续偏低的税收占GDP比重,赋予DSI一项任务:打击让印尼资源开采公司少缴税款的做法。这些做法包括将低价商品出售给新加坡的关联公司,然后后者再加价转售给世界其他地区。普拉博沃先生声称,自20世纪90年代以来,系统的低开发票行为已使国家损失超过9000亿美元。为制止这种情况,DSI将充当印尼大宗商品生产商的唯一买家,负责向全球客户销售其产品。最初将涵盖煤炭、棕榈油和某些镍产品——印尼在这些产品上均为全球最大出口国。此外,100%的外汇收益现在必须存入国有银行,以努力支撑卢比兑美元的汇率。
It is a vast undertaking(事业,任务), though its precise scope is as yet unclear. A modest version of DSI could amount to merely an extra step added to Indonesia’s bureaucratic thicket(官僚丛林). But at its most ambitious, DSI could transform Indonesia’s economy. Bureaucracy could slow and distort(扭曲,歪曲) the flow of exports, on which Indonesia relies to raise revenue. Nor is it clear how DSI will handle existing long-term contracts. Rather than increasing Indonesia’s tax take, DSI could end up cutting it, as S&P, a rating agency, warned last week.(正如评级机构标普上周所警告的那样,DSI非但不会增加印尼的税收,反而可能最终削减税收。)
这是一项庞大的工程,但其具体范围尚不明确。一个温和版的DSI可能只是给印尼的官僚丛林中增加一个额外步骤。但最雄心勃勃的版本可能改变印尼的经济。官僚机构可能会减缓并扭曲印尼依赖以增加收入的出口流。目前也不清楚DSI将如何处理现有的长期合同。正如评级机构标普上周警告的那样,DSI非但不会增加印尼的税收,反而可能最终削减税收。