The numbers look staggeringly(惊人地) good. Taiwan, a rich economy that in a good year might be expected to expand by 3-4%, is growing at 14%. That is thanks to an explosion(爆炸性增长) in exports, which, even after adjusting for inflation(通货膨胀), rose by over 40% last year. In a similar vein, operating profits at South Korea’s biggest firms ballooned(急剧膨胀) by 159% over the past year, thanks chiefly to its mighty exporters. Even usually sluggish(迟缓的，萎靡的) Japan is seeing record corporate profits. Since the covid-19 pandemic(新冠疫情) its exports have grown four times faster than its economy. On the face of things(从表面上看), north-east Asia is in the midst of an export-led bonanza(繁荣，暴富).
这些数字看上去好得惊人。台湾这个富裕经济体，在好年景本可能增长3-4%，如今却以14%的速度增长。这要归功于出口的爆发式增长，即使经过通胀调整，去年也增长了40%以上。类似地，韩国最大企业的营业利润在过去一年飙升了159%，主要归功于其强大的出口商。就连通常萎靡不振的日本也出现了创纪录的企业利润。自新冠疫情以来，其出口增长速度是经济增速的四倍。从表面上看，东北亚正处于一场出口主导的繁荣之中。
That is only half the story(一半的真相), though. North-east Asia’s export industries increasingly operate on two tracks. On one track, the boom in artificial intelligence is driving high-tech exports, by the all-conquering(所向披靡的) chipmakers of South Korea and Taiwan, and by Japanese makers of equipment and materials used in chipmaking. On the second track, the rest of industry is clapped out(破旧不堪，耗尽). If you exclude semiconductors and AI servers, Taiwanese exports have actually fallen by 40% since 2022. In South Korea, non-AI exports have stagnated and Japan’s industry is in decline. In areas such as cars and chemicals, China is lapping(超越，领先) the trio(三个一组（指日韩台）).
然而，这只是故事的一半。东北亚的出口产业越来越在两条轨道上运行。一条轨道上，人工智能的繁荣正在推动高科技出口，由韩国和台湾所向披靡的芯片制造商以及日本制造芯片设备和材料的公司引领。在另一条轨道上，其他行业已经精疲力竭。如果排除半导体和AI服务器，台湾出口自2022年以来实际上下降了40%。在韩国，非AI出口停滞不前，日本工业则在衰退。在汽车和化工等领域，中国正在超越这三家。