
On June 11th Europe passed a sombre milestone(沉重的里程碑). As of that date, the fighting in Ukraine had ground on(持续进行,没完没了地拖) for longer than the first world war. In a grim irony, a conflict that looked like it might last just a few days, as Russian troops confidently stormed towards Kyiv in February 2022, has outlasted one some assumed would be “over by Christmas” in 1914.(具有讽刺意味的是,一场2022年2月俄军自信地冲向基辅时看似只会持续几天的冲突,竟然比1914年那场人们以为“圣诞节前就会结束”的战争还要持久。) Whether in this century or last, war has defied the best-laid plans of military high commands. Soldiers were promised triumphant parades in conquered capitals, but soon found themselves bogged down(陷入泥潭,停滞不前), often literally. Conscripts defending their homelands huddled in foxholes, their trenches turned to quagmire. Novel weapons—tanks, machineguns and mustard gas back then, drones today—reshaped warfare. Men died, families grieved. Maps were updated as towns and villages, or rather what was left of them, changed hands.
6月11日,欧洲迎来了一个沉痛的里程碑。截至那一天,乌克兰的战斗已经持续了比第一次世界大战更长的时间。具有讽刺意味的是,一场起初看来可能只持续几天的冲突——2022年2月俄军自信地冲向基辅——竟然比1914年那场人们以为“圣诞节前就会结束”的战争还要持久。无论本世纪还是上个世纪,战争总是违背军方高层的完美计划。士兵们曾被告知将在被征服的首都举行胜利游行,但很快发现自己陷入泥潭——往往字面意义上的泥潭。保家卫国的应征士兵蜷缩在散兵坑里,他们的战壕变成了沼泽。新式武器——当年的坦克、机枪和芥子气,如今的无人机——重塑了战争。男人死去,家庭哀悼。地图不断更新,因为城镇和村庄——或者说它们剩下的部分——易手了。
Alas(唉(叹词,表哀叹)), a long war is no guarantee of a just peace—as the Treaty of Versailles, signed in 1919, went on to show. But the echoes of that failed armistice might usefully inform efforts to bring hostilities in Ukraine to a close. The “war to end all wars” is remembered these days as a prequel to the even grislier(更恐怖的(grisly比较级)) conflict it helped midwife a generation later. The ghost of Versailles should thus haunt those valiantly trying to end the current conflict. Ukraine’s allies have helped it not lose the war. Soon they will have to gear up(准备,做好安排) to help it win the peace.
唉,长期战争并不能保证公正的和平——1919年签署的《凡尔赛和约》就证明了这一点。但那次失败的停战协议的余响,或许能为结束乌克兰战事提供有益借鉴。如今,人们记得“终结一切战争的战争”是一场更恐怖冲突的前传——它在仅一代人之后催生了那场冲突。因此,凡尔赛的幽灵应萦绕在那些勇敢试图结束当前冲突的人们心头。乌克兰的盟友帮助它没有输掉战争,很快它们还要准备好帮助它赢得和平。
For now, serious talks remain elusive(难以实现的,难以捉摸的). Surely, after 1,568 days of near-uninterrupted fighting, the end of this war should be nearer than its beginning. The recent tentative turning of the tide(形势的转折) in Ukraine’s favour may nudge(轻推,推动) Russia towards the negotiating table. Territorial gains the aggressor made at enormous cost—around 1,000 Russian men dead or seriously wounded every day, say the Ukrainians—are now being partly reversed. Ukrainian drones are reaching deep inside Russia, each plume of putrid(腐臭的,腐烂的) smoke a humbling message to President Vladimir Putin. Europe is about to start disbursing a €90bn ($104bn) loan to Ukraine, helping its ally even as help from America has dried up. Ukrainian troop morale is at a recent high. President Volodymyr Zelensky, once a haggard, hollow shell of a man, can occasionally be seen smiling these days.(总统泽连斯基——曾形容枯槁、只剩空壳——如今偶尔能见到笑容。) But his challenges to Mr Putin to engage in peace talks—backed on June 7th by the leaders of Britain, France and Germany—have come to nothing thus far. Mr Putin says nyet.
目前,严肃谈判仍难以实现。诚然,经过近乎不间断的1568天战斗,这场战争的终点应该比起点更近了。近期战场局势初步转向对乌克兰有利,或许能推动俄罗斯走向谈判桌。侵略者付出巨大代价(乌克兰称每天约1000名俄军阵亡或重伤)取得的领土收益,现在正在部分丧失。乌克兰无人机深入俄罗斯腹地,每一股恶臭的烟柱都是向普京总统发出的羞辱性信号。欧洲即将开始向乌克兰发放900亿欧元(约合1040亿美元)贷款,在美国援助枯竭之际帮助其盟友。乌克兰军队士气近期高涨。总统泽连斯基——曾形容枯槁、只剩空壳——如今偶尔能见到笑容。但他在6月7日得到英法德领导人支持的、挑战普京参与和平谈判的呼吁,至今毫无结果。普京说了“不”。
The guns of August, the drones of June
八月的炮火,六月的无人机