In global trade, limitation is the sincerest form of flattery(限制是最真诚的奉承). China’s manufacturers have become formidable(强大的，令人敬畏的) global competitors, even in sophisticated industries that were once the preserve of much richer countries. They have outflanked Germany’s carmakers, stolen a march on(抢先一步，占得先机) South Korean shipbuilders and narrowed the gap with American chip designers. It is a tribute to their success that world leaders are scrambling to limit the threat to cherished domestic industries and avoid risky dependencies. Later this month, for example, ministers from the European Union will meet to consider more forceful countermeasures. One idea is to require European firms to diversify their suppliers, rather than relying so heavily on Chinese inputs.
在全球贸易中，限制是最真诚的奉承。中国制造商已成为令人生畏的全球竞争者，甚至在那些曾经只属于富裕得多的国家的复杂产业中也是如此。它们超越了德国汽车制造商，抢先于韩国造船企业，并缩小了与美国芯片设计商的差距。世界各国领导人正争相限制对本国珍视产业的威胁并避免危险的依赖，这恰恰是对其成功的致敬。例如，本月晚些时候，欧盟部长们将开会考虑更强有力的反制措施。一个想法是要求欧洲公司多元化其供应商，而不是如此严重地依赖中国进口。
The evolution of China’s exports, which grew by more than 19% year-on-year(同比，与去年同期相比) in May, is a source of satisfaction for the country’s leaders. Trade’s contribution to growth has helped the country withstand the bursting of its property bubble in 2021. China’s dominant position in many international supply chains also gives it geopolitical clout(地缘政治影响力) in a hostile world. The country’s leaders believe in their historical-materialist bones that national greatness lies in technological sophistication and manufacturing might. Chairman Mao believed that power grew out of the barrel of a gun, and that heavy industry makes a country strong. His successors hope that high-tech exports will make China indispensable.
中国出口的演变——5月份同比增长超过19%——令国家领导人感到满意。贸易对增长的贡献帮助中国抵御了2021年房地产泡沫的破裂。中国在许多国际供应链中的主导地位也使它在充满敌意的世界中拥有地缘政治影响力。中国的领导人从骨子里坚信历史唯物主义，认为国家伟大在于技术精良和制造实力。毛泽东主席相信枪杆子里出政权，重工业使国家强大。他的继任者希望高科技出口能让中国变得不可或缺。
But although it is a source of pride for China’s leaders, the country’s high-tech advance has not lifted the animal spirits(动物精神，经济中的非理性乐观情绪) of China’s people. Consumer confidence has still not recovered from the covid-19 lockdowns and the property slump, despite a stock-market rally in late 2024. Retail sales in April rose by only 0.2% compared with a year earlier, even before adjusting for inflation. Car sales collapsed, declining by more than one-fifth. Judged not by industrial prowess(高超的技艺，实力) but by the health of the overall economy, China’s growth model is failing.
但尽管这令中国领导人自豪，国家的高科技进步并未提振人民的动物精神。消费者信心仍未从新冠疫情封锁和房地产低迷中恢复，尽管2024年末股市有所反弹。4月零售额同比仅增长0.2%，甚至未考虑通胀调整。汽车销量暴跌，下降超过五分之一。如果以整体经济健康而非工业实力来评判，中国的增长模式正在失败。