How much would you have paid ten years ago, as votes were counted for Britain’s Brexit referendum(① 背景：2016年6月23日英国举行全...), to glimpse(瞥见) the next morning’s headlines and trade ahead of them? If you were betting on the pound, it would have helped a lot. The night of the poll £1 bought $1.50; a fortnight(两周) later, less than $1.30. But if you were trading stocks, a forewarning(预先警告) might have done more harm than good. Britain’s domestically focused(国内为主的) FTSE 250 share index dropped at first, but only for two trading days. Then it began a bull market(牛市) that lasted for a couple of years. Even the most fervent Brexiteer might not have predicted that.(即使是最狂热的脱欧派也可能没有预料到这一点。)
十年前，当英国脱欧公投的选票正在统计时，你愿意花多少钱来瞥见次日的头条新闻并提前交易？如果你押注英镑，那会大有帮助。投票之夜，1英镑兑1.50美元；两周后，跌至不到1.30美元。但如果你交易股票，预先警告可能弊大于利。以英国国内业务为主的富时250指数起初下跌，但只持续了两个交易日。随后开启了持续数年的牛市。即使是最狂热的脱欧派也可能没有预料到这一点。
Macro trading, meaning betting on how asset prices will move in response to(作为对...的回应) political and economic trends, is enticing(诱人的) and glamorous(光鲜的). It is also hard, and a new study by Jerry Bell, Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth(① 背景：Elm Wealth 是一家专...), an investment firm, shows just how hard. They have designed a simulation in which both humans and leading artificial-intelligence models get access to the next day’s news in advance, and can place their bets before it breaks. In other words, they get to trade ahead of the rest of the market. Yet even with this advantage, it turns out to be difficult—for man and machine alike—to avoid ruin(破产；毁灭) and turn a profit(盈利).
宏观交易，即押注资产价格如何随政治经济趋势变动，既诱人又光鲜。但它也很困难，埃尔姆财富投资公司的杰里·贝尔、维克多·哈格尼和詹姆斯·怀特的一项新研究揭示了这一点。他们设计了一个模拟实验，让人类和领先的人工智能模型都能提前获取次日的新闻，并在新闻发布前下注。换句话说，他们可以在市场其他参与者之前进行交易。然而，即使有这种优势，无论人类还是机器，都很难避免破产并实现盈利。
Mr Bell and his colleagues are updating an experiment they first ran in 2023. Then, they recruit(招募)ed 118 volunteers, most of whom(其中大多数) were studying graduate-level(研究生水平的) finance at leading universities. Each was given $50 and a chance to grow it by placing bets on America’s S&P 500(① 定义：由美国500家大型上市公司组成...) share index and 30-year Treasury bonds(国债).
贝尔先生及其同事正在更新他们于2023年首次进行的实验。当时，他们招募了118名志愿者，其中大多数在顶尖大学攻读金融研究生课程。每人获得50美元，并通过押注美国标普500指数和30年期国债来增值。