AS CHAIRMAN OF the Federal Reserve in the 1990s, the jazz-loving Alan Greenspan earned a reputation as the maestro(大师) of monetary policy. Many of his colleagues believed that unemployment had fallen so low that it was certain to stoke inflation(加剧通胀), and called for higher interest rates. But Mr Greenspan heard a different tune(有不同的看法). From anecdotes(轶事，趣闻) about retailers tracking inventories by satellite or airlines using computers to adjust fares to match demand, he inferred that an IT-driven(信息技术驱动的) productivity boom was taking hold(开始扎根，占据主导) before it appeared in official statistics. The economy could thus grow faster without stoking inflation. He held rates steady for much of 1996 and 1997, trusting his inference over economic models.(在1996年和1997年的大部分时间里，他维持利率不变，相信自己的推断胜过经济模型。) For a time, it worked.
作为1990年代美联储主席，热爱爵士乐的艾伦·格林斯潘赢得了货币政策大师的声誉。他的许多同事认为失业率已降至低点，必然会加剧通胀，因此呼吁提高利率。但格林斯潘听到了不同的调子。从零售商通过卫星跟踪库存、航空公司用计算机调整票价以适应需求等轶事中，他推断一场信息技术驱动的生产率繁荣在官方统计数据显现之前就已经开始。因此经济可以在不引发通胀的情况下更快增长。在1996年和1997年的大部分时间里，他维持利率不变，相信自己的推断胜过经济模型。在一段时间内，这奏效了。
Kevin Warsh, the Fed’s new chairman, has cast himself as(把自己描绘成) Mr Greenspan’s heir. In his telling, artificial intelligence will expand supply and lower costs, allowing the economy to grow faster with less inflationary pressure. He, too, thinks the productivity statistics will arrive late. In an interview last December Mr Warsh praised Mr Greenspan for forming his views “from anecdotes and rather esoteric(深奥的，难懂的) data”, arguing that when the data and the anecdotes diverge, central bankers should trust the latter. He sees the “excitement” in the eyes of chief executives as evidence that a productivity revolution is afoot(在进行中，酝酿中). This forms part of Mr Warsh’s broader case, disputed by many of his colleagues: that AI is a disinflationary(反通胀的) force, and that it calls for(需要，要求) lower interest rates. Has Mr Warsh drawn the right lesson from his hero?(沃什从英雄那里学到了正确的教训吗？)
美联储新任主席凯文·沃什将自己定位为格林斯潘的继承者。按照他的说法，人工智能将扩大供给并降低成本，使经济以更快的速度增长，同时减少通胀压力。他也认为生产率数据会滞后。在去年12月的一次采访中，沃什称赞格林斯潘“从轶事和相当晦涩的数据中”形成观点，并主张当数据与轶事不一致时，央行官员应相信后者。他将首席执行官们眼中的“兴奋”视为生产率革命正在进行的证据。这是沃什更广泛主张的一部分——人工智能是一种通缩力量，因此需要降低利率——尽管许多同僚对此提出异议。沃什从英雄那里学到了正确的教训吗？
In the near term the effect of AI on rates comes down to(归结为) a race between supply and demand. For now, demand is winning. Debt-fuelled(债务驱动的) spending on data centres, chips and power plants has surged. A stock-market bull run(牛市行情) makes the share-owning public feel rich, boosting consumption even as income growth slows. As Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed has warned, “the bigger the hype, the more rates may need to rise to prevent overheating.”(“炒作越大，可能就越需要提高利率以防止过热。”)
在短期内，人工智能对利率的影响取决于供需之间的赛跑。目前，需求正在获胜。以债务为燃料的数据中心、芯片和电厂支出激增。股市牛市让持股公众感到富裕，即使在收入增长放缓的情况下也提振了消费。正如芝加哥联储的奥斯坦·古尔斯比警告的那样：“炒作越大，可能就越需要提高利率以防止过热。”
Play it again, Alan
再来一次，艾伦