WITHIN A FEW years, artificial intelligence will displace(取代，替代) a significant portion of the world’s highly paid knowledge workers. Aggregate demand will suffer, but flows into retirement investment accounts will turn net-negative(转为净负值): workers won’t just stop paying in, they will need to withdraw funds(提取资金).
几年之内，人工智能将取代全球相当一部分高薪知识工作者。总需求将遭受打击，而退休投资账户的资金流入将转为净负债：工人们不仅会停止缴费，还将需要提取资金。
These outflow(流出（资金）)s will come largely from passive investment funds, particularly S&P 500 index trackers. Although such redemptions involve selling every constituent(成分（指数成分股）) in proportion to(按...比例) its index weight, the price impact will not be evenly distributed. The AI “mega-cap(超大盘股)s” that have powered the index higher, such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon, are also the names whose valuations have been most dependent on mechanical passive inflows as the marginal buyer(边际买家). The result, ironically(讽刺地), is that the companies powering the AI revolution are likely to suffer the largest price drops.
这些资金流出将主要来自被动投资基金，尤其是标普500指数追踪基金。尽管此类赎回涉及按指数权重成比例卖出每个成分股，但价格影响不会均匀分布。那些推动指数上涨的AI“超大盘股”，如英伟达、微软和亚马逊，其估值也最依赖于作为边际买家的机械性被动流入。具有讽刺意味的是，结果将是那些推动AI革命的公司很可能遭受最大的价格下跌。
AI is at the inflection point at which large language models are improving at a rate that is non-linear and will soon become exponential because they are themselves coding their successors.(AI正处于转折点：大语言模型以非线性速率改进，并将指数级增长，因为它们自我编码。) The most sophisticated(老练的，精通的) users of AI are in tech companies. Using the current generation of models, they have in many cases reduced teams that previously had half a dozen(六个) workers or more to just one. It is quite possible that within three to four years AI will have replaced 15% of jobs in America’s broader knowledge economy.
AI正处于转折点：大语言模型正以非线性速率改进，并将很快变成指数级，因为它们自身在编写后继者。AI最老练的用户在科技公司。使用当前一代模型，他们在许多情况下将原本有六名或更多员工的团队缩减到只剩一人。很有可能在三到四年内，AI将取代美国更广泛知识经济中15%的工作岗位。
Don’t say you want a revolution
别说你想要一场革命