THE EARTHQUAKEs in Venezuela on June 24th are a humanitarian disaster(人道主义灾难). They are also an economic calamity(灾难，浩劫). Estimates suggest damage of at least $10bn, equivalent to a tenth of Venezuelan GDP, already diminished by years of mismanagement and corruption. It could cost ten times that. To make matters worse, they struck just as the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez(德尔西·罗德里格斯), installed after America deposed her predecessor and boss, Nicolás Maduro, is preparing to renegotiate the country’s $240bn or so in debt. A deal would help clear the path for economic recovery—if it can be pulled off.(若能达成协议，将有助于为经济复苏扫清道路——前提是能够实现。)
2024年6月24日委内瑞拉的地震是一场人道主义灾难。同时也是一场经济浩劫。据估计，损失至少100亿美元，相当于委内瑞拉GDP的十分之一，而这一GDP早已因多年管理不善和腐败而缩水。实际损失可能高达这个数字的十倍。更糟糕的是，地震发生之际，由美国推翻她的前任兼老板尼古拉斯·马杜罗后任命的德尔西·罗德里格斯临时政府正筹备重新谈判该国约2400亿美元的债务。若能达成协议，将有助于为经济复苏扫清道路——前提是能够实现。
This will not be straightforward(简单的，直接的). The restructuring will be among the largest in history. In nominal terms the combined debts of the government and PDVSA(委内瑞拉国家石油公司), the state oil firm, are comparable to those of Greece, which defaulted(违约（债务）) on $260bn in bonds in 2012. Relative to GDP, they are twice as large.
这次谈判不会简单。这次债务重组将是历史上规模最大的之一。按名义价值计算，政府和国有石油公司PDVSA的合并债务相当于2012年违约2600亿美元债券的希腊的水平。相对于GDP，它们的规模是希腊的两倍。
The deal will also be peculiar(奇特的，独特的). It involves a motley crew(形形色色的一群人) of creditors. And it does not involve the IMF—usually at the centre of sovereign restructurings. Moreover, observes Orlando Ochoa of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, a think-tank, “Two decades of administrative decay have depleted the skilled personnel required to navigate international financial negotiations.(二十年的行政衰败耗尽了驾驭国际金融谈判所需的专业人才。)” Instead, the government is paying Centerview Partners, a Wall Street investment bank, a reported $150m to negotiate on its behalf.
这笔交易也很奇特。它涉及形形色色的债权人。而且它不涉及国际货币基金组织——该组织通常处于主权债务重组的中心。此外，牛津能源研究所的奥兰多·奥乔亚指出：“二十年的行政衰败耗尽了驾驭国际金融谈判所需的专业人才。”相反，政府正向华尔街投行Centerview Partners支付据称1.5亿美元的费用，由后者代表其进行谈判。
Enduring aftershocks
持续的余震