THE RAPID spread of new technological infrastructure is usually accompanied by booms in bond markets. The emergence of a liquid market(流动性强的市场) for corporate credit(企业信贷) on both sides of the Atlantic in the 19th century reflected the express growth(快速的增长) of the railway industry. Before the arrival of railway operators with their vast investment needs—to buy land, lay tracks and ship goods—corporate finance was the province of(...的领域) small banks. Afterwards it became coupled with(与...紧密相连) bond markets, at first nationally, then internationally.
新技术基础设施的快速普及通常伴随着债券市场的繁荣。19世纪大西洋两岸企业信贷流动市场的出现，反映了铁路行业的迅猛发展。在铁路运营商出现之前——它们需要购买土地、铺设轨道和运输货物——企业融资只是小银行的地盘。此后，企业融资与债券市场紧密相连，先是国内，后扩展到国际。
The latest techno-infrastructure frenzy(技术基础设施热潮), this time over artificial intelligence, is likewise stoking a bond-market boom (see chart 1). Since January Meta, Nvidia and Oracle have launched individual bond offerings(债券发行) worth $25bn apiece(每个250亿美元) to fund their AI ambitions—more than any of them has ever raised in equity(通过股权融资). So has SpaceX, which added the same sum to the $86bn that Elon Musk’s rockets-to-robots business(从火箭到机器人的业务) raised from stock-market investors last month. In March Amazon, whose computing cloud hosts lots of AI workloads, sold $37bn in bonds. Alphabet issued a rare 100-year bond worth £1bn ($1.4bn) in Britain in February as part of a £5.5bn debt sale, plus more paper in Swiss francs, days after it raised $20bn at home.
最新的技术基础设施热潮——这次是关于人工智能的——同样也在激起债券市场的繁荣（见图表1）。自今年1月以来，Meta、Nvidia和Oracle各自启动了价值250亿美元的债券发行，为其人工智能雄心融资——这超过了它们任何一家在股票市场上筹集的资金。SpaceX也是如此，它在上个月从股票投资者手中筹集了860亿美元，现在又增加了同样的数额。3月，亚马逊——其计算云承载了大量人工智能工作负载——出售了370亿美元债券。Alphabet于2月在英国发行了一只罕见的100年期债券，价值10亿英镑（14亿美元），作为55亿英镑债务出售的一部分，此外还发行了瑞士法郎债券，几天前它刚在本土筹集了200亿美元。
Last year issuance of corporate bonds in America was not far off the all-time high(历史最高) set in 2020 (see chart 2). This year that record will almost certainly be broken, thanks in large part to(很大程度上归功于) AI. Morgan Stanley(摩根士丹利), an investment bank, expects $350bn-400bn in AI-related investment-grade(投资级) issuance this year in American bond markets. That would be nearly a fifth of(五分之一) the $2.3trn in high-quality dollar-denominated bonds(高质量美元计价债券) which companies are forecast to sell there in 2026. Another $50bn may come from junk bonds(垃圾债券) linked to AI projects (out of total high-yield issuance(高收益债券发行) of $440bn).
去年美国公司债券的发行量接近2020年创下的历史最高纪录（见图表2）。今年这一纪录几乎肯定会被打破，很大程度上要归功于人工智能。投行摩根士丹利预计，今年美国债市与人工智能相关的投资级债券发行量将达到3500亿至4000亿美元。这将是2026年预计公司出售的2.3万亿美元高质量美元计价债券的近五分之一。另外还有500亿美元可能来自与人工智能项目相关的垃圾债券（在高收益债券发行总额4400亿美元中）。
