“The stock MARKET is not the economy” might be a cliché, but it is still jarring to see quite how far the two can part ways(分道扬镳，分开). Surely economic growth should be good for shareholders? Yet study after study has suggested the opposite. One by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, for instance, compared the returns on 16 countries’ stock markets with their GDP growth per person between 1900 and 2002.(例如，佛罗里达大学的杰伊·里特尔比较了1900年至2002年间16个国家股市回报与其人均GDP增长。) The two appeared, if anything, to be negatively correlated(负相关)—meaning that the faster a country became richer, the worse its investors tended to do.
“股市不是经济”这句话可能是陈词滥调，但看到两者分道扬镳的程度，仍然令人震惊。经济增长难道不应该对股东有利吗？然而，一项又一项研究得出了相反的结论。例如，佛罗里达大学的杰伊·里特尔（Jay Ritter）比较了1900年至2002年间16个国家股市的回报与其人均GDP增长。两者之间似乎呈现出负相关——也就是说，一个国家变得越富裕，其投资者的表现反而越差。
Mr Ritter’s results are worth bearing in mind(记住，牢记) when contemplating some of the world’s most underloved(不受宠爱的，被忽视的) shares. Brief flirtations aside, it has been a long time since Europe’s big markets have thrilled international investors, and there are no prizes for guessing(不言而喻，很容易猜到) why. The IMF reckons GDP growth in the euro area will be just 1.1% this year, compared with 1.8% for advanced economies the world over and 2.3% for America. Some of Europe’s peripheral and emerging bourses(证券交易所) are buzzing(热闹的，活跃的); the mainstays(主流市场，支柱) are not.
在思考世界上一些最不受欢迎的股票时，里特尔先生的研究结果值得牢记。短暂的调情不算，欧洲大市场让国际投资者兴奋的日子已经过去很久了，原因不言而喻。国际货币基金组织预计，今年欧元区GDP增长率仅为1.1%，而全球发达经济体为1.8%，美国为2.3%。欧洲一些外围和新兴交易所一片火热，但主力市场却不然。
Worse, Europe appears increasingly ill-equipped(装备不足，能力欠缺) for the 21st century. It has neither artificial-intelligence giants to compete with those in America and China nor enough data centres to host their models. Its electricity grid is strained even without them. So is its power supply, since Europeans import nearly 60% of their energy—a vulnerability laid bare(暴露，揭露) by wars in Ukraine and Iran.
更糟糕的是，欧洲似乎越来越难以应对21世纪的需求。它既没有能与中美竞争的人工智能巨头，也没有足够的数据中心来承载它们的模型。即使没有这些，其电网也已承受压力。电力供应也是如此，因为欧洲人近60%的能源依赖进口——乌克兰和伊朗的战争暴露了这一脆弱性。