In 1876 Eli Lilly, a veteran of the civil war, founded a company in Indianapolis to bring scientific rigour to a medicines market awash with(充斥着) quack cures(江湖骗术疗法) and miracle remedies. In doing so, he helped usher in(开创，引领) the modern pharmaceutical industry. A century and a half later, the company that bears his name(以他的名字命名) wants to reinvent it again.
1876年，美国内战老兵伊莱·礼来在印第安纳波利斯创立了一家公司，旨在将科学严谨性带入充斥着江湖骗术和神奇疗法的医药市场。凭借此举，他帮助开启了现代制药工业。一个半世纪后，这家以他名字命名的公司希望再次重塑这一行业。
It has the scale to try. Lilly is the world’s most valuable drugmaker and the first pharmaceutical company to be worth more than $1trn, joining a club mostly dominated by tech giants. Since the start of 2023 its share price has more than tripled(增至三倍). Analysts expect its revenue to grow by around 15% a year, on average, until the end of the decade, more than three times the median of its peers(同行中位数). Investors now value Lilly more like a tech giant than a drugmaker (see chart).
它拥有尝试的规模。礼来是全球市值最高的制药商，也是首家市值超过1万亿美元的制药公司，加入了一个主要由科技巨头组成的俱乐部。自2023年初以来，其股价已上涨超过两倍。分析师预计，到本十年末，其收入将以年均约15%的速度增长，是同行中位数的三倍多。投资者现在对礼来的估值更像是一家科技巨头，而非制药商（见图表）。
Much of that euphoria(极度兴奋的情绪) rests on GLP-1s, a new class of obesity drugs that have transformed both the company and the industry. Zepbound, Lilly’s slimming jab, generated $4.9bn in sales in its first full year on the market in 2024. This year analysts expect sales to be quadruple(增至四倍) that figure. The company now accounts for(占（比例）) three-fifths of GLP-1 sales in America. Bloomberg Intelligence, a research group, estimates that Lilly could capture two-thirds of a global obesity-drug market worth more than $120bn a year by 2030.
这种兴奋情绪很大程度上源于GLP-1类药物，这类新型减肥药已经改变了公司乃至整个行业。礼来的减肥注射剂Zepbound在2024年上市的第一个完整年度销售额达到49亿美元。分析师预计今年销售额将是这一数字的四倍。该公司目前占美国GLP-1销售额的五分之三。研究机构彭博情报估计，到2030年，礼来可能占据全球减肥药市场（年价值超过1200亿美元）的三分之二。
A budding idea
一个萌芽的想法