EUROPEAN LEADERS understand that conflict is closer than ever(比以往任何时候都更近)—hence the sharp rise(急剧上升) in defence budgets, as showcased at(在……上得到展示) NATO(北大西洋公约组织)’s recent summit in Ankara. Spending is not increasing because European armies are planning to fight Russia in Ukraine: Europeans are now the main military backers of Kyiv, but such support is a small fraction of their total military spending. Nor are Europeans spending simply because Donald Trump has demanded it. They are doing so because they consider a kinetic war(热战、动能战争) in Europe beyond Ukraine to be increasingly plausible. This explains why spending is proportionally higher in eastern and northern Europe, including Germany, than in southern and western European countries farther from the front line.
欧洲领导人明白冲突比以往任何时候都更近——因此国防预算大幅上升，这在北约最近在安卡拉的峰会上得到了体现。开支增加不是因为欧洲军队计划在乌克兰与俄罗斯作战：欧洲现在是基辅的主要军事支持者，但这种支持只占其总军费的一小部分。欧洲人增加开支也不仅仅是因为唐纳德·特朗普的要求。他们这样做是因为他们认为乌克兰以外欧洲发生热战的可能性越来越大。这解释了为什么包括德国在内的东欧和北欧国家的开支比例高于远离前线的南欧和西欧国家。
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion(全面入侵) in 2022, European leaders have often expressed awe at Ukrainian resilience(韧性；恢复能力). But there is something else behind Europeans’ amazement: fear that they may not show the same resolve(决心；坚定). This is not because of some inherent courage in Ukrainians which Europeans lack. It boils down to(归结为；本质上是) the fundamentally different predicaments(困境；尴尬的处境), physically and psychologically, of nations in war and peace. Can the spirit needed to deter war be summoned in Europe without fully entering one?(能否在不完全卷入战争的情况下，在欧洲召唤出威慑所需的精神？)
自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵以来，欧洲领导人经常对乌克兰的韧性表示敬畏。但欧洲人的惊叹背后还有另一层意思：担心自己可能无法表现出同样的决心。这不是因为乌克兰人拥有欧洲人缺乏的某种与生俱来的勇气。归根结底，战争与和平中的国家在身体和心理上处于根本不同的困境。能否在不完全卷入战争的情况下，在欧洲召唤出威慑所需的精神？
Spending on defence is one thing, fighting is another. A Gallup poll(盖洛普民意调查) in 2024 revealed that around a third of Europeans would be unwilling to fight if their own country were attacked. My own country, Italy, was at the bottom of the pack(排名垫底), with a whopping(巨大的；惊人的) 78% saying they would refuse.
防务开支是一回事，战斗是另一回事。2024年盖洛普的一项民意调查显示，大约三分之一的欧洲人如果自己的国家受到攻击，也不愿参战。我的祖国意大利排在最后，高达78%的人表示拒绝。