It was on Wall Street that Luana Lopes Lara, the 30-year-old co-founder of Kalshi, was inspired to start a prediction-markets exchange. As an intern at hedge funds such as Five Rings Capital and Citadel Securities, she was baffled(困惑的) to find fund managers building elaborate portfolios to take positions on(对…下注/持仓) forthcoming elections and interest-rate decisions. Kalshi’s users bet directly on events instead. “What we are building is a financial exchange where anyone from a Robin Hood trader to Goldman Sachs to someone in an MIT dorm could trade directly in what their thesis was about the future(我们正在构建一个金融交易所，从Robinhood交易员到高盛，再到MIT宿舍里的人，都可以直接交易他们对未来的看法。),” Ms Lopes Lara says.
正是在华尔街，30岁的Kalshi联合创始人Luana Lopes Lara受到启发，创立了一家预测市场交易所。在Five Rings Capital和Citadel Securities等对冲基金实习期间，她困惑地发现基金经理们构建复杂的投资组合，来对即将到来的选举和利率决策下注。而Kalshi的用户则直接对事件本身下注。Lopes Lara女士说：“我们正在构建一个金融交易所，从Robinhood的交易员到高盛，再到MIT宿舍里的任何人，都可以直接交易他们对未来的看法。”
Among amateur traders, prediction markets have taken off(迅速增长/起飞). Everyone from students to delivery drivers seems to be having a flutter(小赌一把). Kalshi processed(处理（交易量）) $33bn of trades in June, according to the Block, a data provider. Its main rival, Polymarket, did $10.7bn on its crypto-based international exchange, plus $3.3bn on its regulated American version. These are tiny sums(微小数额) next to those on big derivatives exchanges. But they are growing fast (see chart). Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly fundraising(融资) at valuations of $40bn and $15bn.
在业余交易者中，预测市场已经起飞。从学生到送货司机，似乎每个人都在小赌一把。据数据提供商The Block称，Kalshi在6月份处理了330亿美元的交易。其主要竞争对手Polymarket在其基于加密货币的国际交易所上交易了107亿美元，加上其受监管的美国版本上的33亿美元。与大型衍生品交易所相比，这些数字微不足道，但它们增长迅速（见图表）。据报道，Kalshi和Polymarket正在以400亿美元和150亿美元的估值进行融资。
To maintain that growth, they will have to attract institutional investors making big trades. Prediction markets are piquing(激起（兴趣）) interest on Wall Street. Well-known funds have begun tracking odds on Kalshi in their research. Trading firms like Susquehanna and Jump Trading are operating as market-makers(做市商) ensuring liquidity on the exchange. Finance students are placing bets, hoping a record of success will help them land(获得（工作）) jobs at big banks. What will it take for institutional investors to make weighty(重大的/沉重的) wagers?
为了维持这种增长，它们必须吸引进行大额交易的机构投资者。预测市场正在引起华尔街的兴趣。知名基金已开始在研究中跟踪Kalshi上的赔率。Susquehanna和Jump Trading等交易公司正作为做市商运营，确保交易所的流动性。金融专业的学生也在下注，希望成功的记录能帮助他们在大型银行找到工作。机构投资者要做出重大押注需要什么条件？