For a good portion of the early 2020s, just about every discussion of financial markets seemed to involve aviation metaphors. Rich-world inflation had surged and central bankers had belatedly ratcheted up(逐步提高) interest rates in an attempt to cool their economies. The big question was whether they could accomplish this without crashing into recession. Overdo the monetary tightening, and productive activity would be squeezed out of the economy along with inflation: a “hard landing(硬着陆)”. Those who got it just right would be rewarded with a “soft landing(软着陆)”, in which inflation faded but the economy avoided a downturn. History, alas(唉，可惜), showed hard landings to be much more frequent than soft ones.
在2020年代初期的大部分时间里，几乎每次讨论金融市场都离不开航空隐喻。发达世界的通胀飙升，央行官员们姗姗来迟地加息以试图给经济降温。大问题是他们能否在不导致经济衰退的情况下完成这一任务。如果货币紧缩过度，生产活动就会与通胀一起被挤出经济，即“硬着陆”。而那些做得恰到好处的人则会迎来“软着陆”——通胀消退但经济避免衰退。可惜的是，历史表明硬着陆远比软着陆频繁。
Anyone proposing a third scenario—“no landing(不着陆)”, in which both inflation and growth kept running hot—could expect short shrift(冷遇，不理会) from central bankers. Buttonwood himself has made half a dozen bristle(被激怒) by asking if they might allow such a thing. The milder types reminded him that their institutions had been given inflation targets by their governments and took them very seriously. The more irritable offered (marginally(略微地)) politer versions of: “How stupid and/or irresponsible do you think we are?”
任何提出第三种情景——“不着陆”，即通胀和增长都保持火热——的人，都会遭到央行官员的冷遇。梧桐树专栏作者本人就曾因询问他们是否会允许这种情况发生而多次惹恼他们。温和一些的人提醒他，他们的机构已被政府赋予了通胀目标，并且非常重视。更暴躁的人则给出了（稍微）礼貌一点的版本：“你觉得我们有多愚蠢和/或不负责任？”
Fast forward to(快进到) today, however, and it looks suspiciously(可疑地) as if the world’s most important central bank has indeed opted for perpetual flight(永久飞行). The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of American inflation never did fall to its 2% target, bottoming out(触底) at 2.3% over the 12 months to April 2025. The latest reading, for May, was 4.1%. Prices have risen almost as quickly in Australia (4%) and are also still outstripping(超过) targets in Britain (2.6%) and the euro area (2.8%).
然而，快进到今天，看起来世界最重要的央行似乎确实选择了永久飞行。美联储偏好的美国通胀指标从未降至2%的目标，在截至2025年4月的12个月中触底于2.3%。最新读数（5月）为4.1%。澳大利亚的物价上涨几乎同样迅速（4%），英国（2.6%）和欧元区（2.8%）的物价也仍高于目标。