HERE IS A thought to chill the blood(令人不寒而栗) of President Donald Trump. He would be in a far better place today if he had followed the foreign-policy advice of the predecessor he loathes, Barack Obama.(如果他听从了奥巴马的建议，今天的处境会好得多。) According to the Obama doctrine(奥巴马主义：美国外交政策原则), as explained years ago to Jeffrey Goldberg, a journalist, an American president’s first duty in world affairs is: “Don’t do stupid shit.”
有一个想法会让唐纳德·特朗普总统不寒而栗。如果他听从了他所厌恶的前任巴拉克·奥巴马的外交政策建议，他今天的处境会好得多。根据多年前向记者杰弗里·戈德堡阐述的奥巴马主义，美国总统在世界事务中的首要职责是：“别干蠢事。”
As doctrines go, it is not very sophisticated. Moreover, cerebral(理智的，用脑的) Mr Obama left a mixed foreign-policy record: he was slow to grasp the full scope of the China threat, for instance. Still, if Mr Trump had heed(听从，注意)ed him, he might not have joined Israel in launching war on Iran on February 28th without a plan for victory. Mr Trump might not have boasted that the killing of Iran’s top leaders, followed by punishing(惩罚性的，猛烈的) air strikes, would soon trigger regime change(政权更迭). Given Iran’s complexity and its rulers’ ruthlessness, that was as daft as predicting that the Mafia could be bombed out of Sicily from the air.(鉴于伊朗的复杂性和统治者的冷酷，这种说法就像预测能从空中炸出黑手党一样愚蠢。) Now, Mr Trump’s war may consume his presidency.
作为一种主义，它并不复杂。此外，睿智的奥巴马留下了好坏参半的外交政策记录：例如，他迟迟未能充分认识中国威胁的严重性。尽管如此，如果特朗普听从他，他可能不会在2月28日加入以色列对伊朗发动战争，且没有胜利计划。特朗普可能不会吹嘘说，杀死伊朗最高领导人，随后进行惩罚性空袭，很快就会引发政权更迭。鉴于伊朗的复杂性和其统治者的冷酷无情，这种说法就像预测黑手党能从空中被炸出西西里岛一样愚蠢。现在，特朗普的战争可能会吞噬他的总统任期。
The president’s Middle East record includes real successes, notably the recognition of Israel by four Arab states in the Abraham accords(亚伯拉罕协议：以色列与阿拉伯国家关系正常化). Mr Trump deserves credit for (belatedly(迟来地)) strong-arming Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, into a ceasefire last year with Hamas, though conditions in Gaza remain grim. His decision to join Israel in bombarding Iran’s nuclear sites last summer was risky, but not stupid. The operation came with costs, including the loss of access to Iran’s highly enriched uranium for international inspectors. Still, inflicting severe damage on Iran’s underground nuclear programme followed a coherent logic. Iran’s muted(温和的，不强烈的) response in retaliation was a further vindication(证明正确，辩护).
总统的中东记录包括真正的成功，特别是四个阿拉伯国家在《亚伯拉罕协议》中承认以色列。特朗普值得称赞的是，他（姗姗来迟地）迫使以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡去年与哈马斯达成停火，尽管加沙局势仍然严峻。他去年夏天加入以色列轰炸伊朗核设施的决定是冒险的，但并不愚蠢。该行动付出了代价，包括国际检查员无法接触伊朗的高浓缩铀。尽管如此，对伊朗地下核计划造成严重损害遵循了连贯的逻辑。伊朗在报复中反应平淡，进一步证明了这一点。
The Gulf learns not to rely on America
海湾国家学会不依赖美国