THERE IS A comfortable ritual(惯例，例行公事) in international economic diplomacy. Whenever global imbalances emerge as a source of anxiety—as they have again today—the conversation gravitate(被吸引，倾向于)s towards the exchange rate. China runs large and growing external surpluses. America runs large and growing external deficits. Both are assessed as excessive by the IMF. If only(要是……就好了) policymakers could meet in some fancy hotel, agree to strengthen the yuan and weaken the dollar, the argument runs, then China would import more and export less, America would do the opposite and the world’s lopsided(不平衡的，倾斜的) pattern of surpluses and deficits would gently correct itself. Of late, this view has gathered supporters in the West.
国际经济外交中有一个令人舒适的惯例。每当全球失衡成为焦虑的源头——正如当下再次出现的情况——讨论就会转向汇率。中国拥有庞大且不断增长的外部顺差，美国则面临庞大且不断扩大的外部逆差。国际货币基金组织（IMF）认为两者都已过度。这种观点认为，只要政策制定者能在一家豪华酒店会面，同意让人民币升值、美元贬值，那么中国就会增加进口、减少出口，美国则相反，世界这种失衡的顺差与逆差格局就会自行温和纠正。近来，这一观点在西方获得了更多支持者。
To be clear, the Chinese yuan is no doubt(毫无疑问) undervalued. But the emphasis on the exchange rate as the lever of adjustment is misplaced(放错地方的，不恰当的). In a G7 expert report and an IMF policy paper on global imbalances, both published this year (with input from the authors of this article), the exchange rate is treated not as a culprit(罪魁祸首), but as an outcome—an undesirable but predictable consequence of a particular configuration(配置，组合) of domestic policies.
需要明确的是，人民币无疑被低估了。但将汇率视为调整杠杆的强调是错误的。在七国集团（G7）的一份专家报告和IMF关于全球失衡的一份政策文件中（均于今年发布，本文作者参与了撰写），汇率不被视为罪魁祸首，而是一种结果——是国内特定政策组合所导致的不理想但可预见的后果。
A country that suppresses household consumption while simultaneously facing a collapse of property investment will run persistent current-account surpluses and will, other things equal, have a weak currency.(一个抑制家庭消费同时又面临房地产投资崩溃的国家，将出现持续的经常账户顺差，并且在其他条件不变的情况下，货币会走弱。) A country with insufficient private savings and unsustainably large fiscal deficits will run persistent(持续的，持久的) current-account deficits and will, other things equal(在其他条件不变的情况下), have a strong real exchange rate against other other currencies. The currency is misaligned(失调的，未对齐的) because the underlying policy mix produces too much or too little saving. The exchange rate is a symptom, not the disease.
一个抑制家庭消费同时又面临房地产投资崩溃的国家，将出现持续的经常账户顺差，并且在其他条件不变的情况下，货币会走弱。一个私人储蓄不足且财政赤字不可持续的国家，将出现持续的经常账户逆差，并且在其他条件不变的情况下，实际汇率会相对于其他货币走强。货币失调是因为基础政策组合产生了过多或过少的储蓄。汇率是症状，而非疾病。
Big beautiful balance
宏大而美好的平衡