Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, flew to Dublin on July 28th just to hand-deliver(亲手递送) a four-letter message: Nein. The recipient, Micheál Martin, his Irish counterpart(对应的人或职位), took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union at the start of the month, and a new seven-year EU budget needs to be hammered out(经过艰苦谈判达成). Embattled(处境艰难的，四面楚歌的) at home, in part because of spending cuts and tax increases, Mr Merz insisted that the current proposal, around €1.7trn ($2trn), was unacceptable. “We need a budget draft that cuts across the board(全面地，整体地)—to the tune of(高达……（金额）) several hundred billion euros.”
德国总理弗里德里希·默茨于7月28日飞往都柏林，只为亲手递送一个四个字母的信息：Nein（不）。收信人是他的爱尔兰 counterpart 米歇尔·马丁，后者于本月初接任欧盟理事会轮值主席国，而一项新的七年期欧盟预算亟待敲定。默茨在国内因削减开支和增税而处境艰难，他坚称目前约1.7万亿欧元（合2万亿美元）的提案不可接受。“我们需要一份全面削减的预算草案——削减幅度达数千亿欧元。”
The cuts have to be even larger if the EU also has to start repaying its debt. The bloc has issued €840bn (worth about 4.5% of GDP) in the past, mostly to back its post-pandemic recovery fund (see chart). Servicing(支付（债务）利息) and repaying that will take about €168bn out of the budget. The European Commission would like to add more debt, above what is already planned for a defence-loan programme and €90bn in help for Ukraine; it wants a debt-funded tool, worth over €300bn, to respond to unforeseen crises. Perhaps Mr Merz should consider the upside(好处，积极面). A more debt-funded EU could help create a thriving(繁荣的，蓬勃发展的) market in European rather than(而不是) national bonds.
如果欧盟还必须开始偿还债务，削减幅度就必须更大。欧盟过去已发行了8400亿欧元（约占GDP的4.5%），主要用于支持其疫情后复苏基金（见图表）。偿还这些债务将耗去约1680亿欧元的预算。欧盟委员会希望在已计划的国防贷款项目和900亿欧元对乌援助之外再增加债务；它想要一个价值超过3000亿欧元的债务融资工具，以应对未预见的危机。或许默茨先生应该考虑一下好处。一个更多依赖债务融资的欧盟，有助于创造一个繁荣的欧洲债券市场，而非各国国债市场。
So far, EU debt is trading at a discount(折价，低于面值) to equivalent German paper, the continental benchmark(基准，参照标准): yields are about 0.3 percentage points higher. This is largely because the EU has no tax-raising powers and in a crisis Germany would surely honour(履行，兑现（承诺）) its own debts first. Nor is EU debt permanent; it is supposed to be repaid and not rolled over(展期，滚动续期). That is one reason why it is omitted(被排除，被省略) from sovereign-bond indices—which is unlikely to change, says an executive at an index provider. “You also need compensation for the lower liquidity(流动性),” adds Konstantin Veit of Pimco, a fixed-income asset manager. A liquid futures market for EU debt, say, would make hedging(对冲，套期保值) risk cheaper. Today’s derivatives market is too thin(（市场）清淡，不活跃).
迄今为止，欧盟债券的交易价格相对于同等德国债券（欧洲大陆的基准）存在折价：收益率高出约0.3个百分点。这主要是因为欧盟没有征税权，而且在危机中德国肯定会优先偿还自己的债务。欧盟债券也不是永久性的；它需要偿还，不能展期。这就是它被排除在主权债券指数之外的原因之一——一家指数提供商的高管表示，这种情况不太可能改变。“你还需要为较低的流动性获得补偿，”固定收益资产管理公司Pimco的康斯坦丁·维特补充道。例如，一个流动性强的欧盟债券期货市场将使对冲风险更便宜。而如今的衍生品市场过于薄弱。