Elon Musk is unrepentant(不悔改的). Starting in January 2025, in his brief stint as Donald Trump’s cost-slasher-in-chief(首席成本削减官), SpaceX’s boss helped the president dismantle(拆除，解散) the world’s biggest foreign-aid agency. Eighteen months on, he insists the end of USAID has not cost any human lives: “Zero point zero,” he says. Aid bureaucrats disagree. Bill Gates has accused Mr Musk of killing the world’s poorest children. Researchers started back-of-the-envelope(粗略估算的) calculations of the human cost of cuts soon after they began. The most influential, published in the Lancet in July 2025, estimates that by 2030 14m people will die as a result of USAID’s demise.(最具影响力的研究发表在《柳叶刀》上，估计到2030年将有1400万人因USAID的终结而死亡。)
埃隆·马斯克毫无悔意。自2025年1月起，在他短暂担任唐纳德·特朗普的首席成本削减官期间，这位SpaceX的老板协助总统拆除了世界上最大的对外援助机构。十八个月后，他坚称美国国际开发署的终结没有造成任何人员死亡：“零点零，”他说。援助官员们不同意。比尔·盖茨指责马斯克杀害了世界上最贫困的儿童。研究人员在削减开始后不久就开始了对人力成本的粗略估算。最具影响力的一项研究于2025年7月发表在《柳叶刀》上，估计到2030年，将有1400万人因美国国际开发署的终结而死亡。
Neither a claim of zero nor one of so many millions survives a thorough interrogation(审问，仔细检查). USAID once doled out(发放，分配) $60bn, or roughly a quarter of foreign aid globally, paying for everything from HIV drugs and disaster relief to radio stations and justice think-tanks. The abruptness(突然，唐突) of its closure disrupted life-saving assistance. That has cost lives, and permanent cuts will cost more. But the biggest estimates of lives lost assume that Mr Trump planned to eliminate(消除，消灭) everything USAID once funded. In fact much was preserved, and is now distributed by different government bodies.
无论是零死亡的声称，还是数百万死亡的预测，都经不起彻底审视。美国国际开发署曾发放600亿美元，约占全球对外援助的四分之一，用于支付从艾滋病药物、灾难救援到广播电台和司法智库的一切费用。其突然关闭中断了救生援助。这已经造成了生命损失，而永久性削减将造成更多损失。但最大的死亡人数估计假设特朗普计划取消美国国际开发署曾经资助的一切。事实上，很多项目得以保留，现在由不同的政府机构分配。
The stories are not always simple. A week after Mr Trump cut off all funding, he temporarily provided a waiver(豁免，弃权) for “life-saving” services. But confusion over who qualified meant some services never restarted, while others were permanently cut loose(切断，摆脱) in the following months.
故事并不总是那么简单。特朗普切断所有资金一周后，他临时为“救生”服务提供了豁免。但关于谁有资格的混乱意味着一些服务从未重启，而其他服务在接下来的几个月里被永久切断。
A novel nudge theory
一种新颖的助推理论