A CYNIC MIGHT say that ceasefires between Iran and America hold well between attacks. In the past fortnight a pattern has become familiar. A pause in fighting is declared; one party breaches it; tit-for-tat(以牙还牙的) strikes and superlative threats ensue; détente(（国际关系）缓和) is announced once again.
愤世嫉俗者可能会说，伊朗与美国之间的停火在两次攻击之间维持得还不错。过去两周，一种模式已变得熟悉：宣布战斗暂停；一方违反停火；报复性打击和夸张威胁接踵而至；缓和再次被宣布。
This cycle changes little of the reality on the ground(在实地；在现实中): traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains anaemic(贫血的；无力的) and the global energy system is under strain. Talks have not progressed and Iran insists it wants sole control of the strait. Yet oil markets remain optimistic that a lasting truce is around the corner. At $90-odd a barrel, Brent crude, the global benchmark(基准；标杆), is well short of(远低于；远未达到) its $102 intraday peak on July 23rd.
这种循环几乎改变不了地面现实：霍尔木兹海峡的交通依然疲弱，全球能源系统承受压力。谈判没有进展，伊朗坚持要单独控制海峡。然而，石油市场仍然乐观，认为持久休战即将到来。每桶90多美元的布伦特原油（全球基准）远低于7月23日每桶102美元的盘中高点。
How big is the ongoing risk to the oil price? Five months of war have failed to propel(推动；驱使) Brent futures to, say, $150 a barrel. But today oil markets are more fragile than in March, for three reasons: the Hormuz problem has grown more intractable(棘手的；难处理的); new threats have emerged; and protective buffers have worn thin.
当前油价面临的风险有多大？五个月的战争未能将布伦特期货推高至每桶150美元。但如今的石油市场比三月份更加脆弱，原因有三：霍尔木兹问题变得更加棘手；新的威胁出现；保护性缓冲已经耗尽。
