ON A CHILLY night in San Francisco this summer, Persia, a drag queen in a gold dress, danced around a crowd gathered before a big screen to watch the World Cup. “Hopefully that energy will go to Team USA!” she wheezed(气喘吁吁地说), out of breath (it didn’t). As Daniel Lurie, the city’s mayor, talked about San Francisco’s recovery from the pandemic, he jerked his head around to check the score.(当市长谈论疫情复苏时，他猛地转头查看比分。) “The city is on the rise(在上升，在增长),” he insisted, as he gestured at the party before him. “But it’s fragile.”
今年夏天一个寒冷的夜晚，在旧金山，一位身着金色连衣裙的变装皇后波斯（Persia）在聚集在大屏幕前观看世界杯的人群中翩翩起舞。“希望这股能量能传给美国队！”她气喘吁吁地喊道（结果并没有）。当该市市长丹尼尔·卢里（Daniel Lurie）谈论旧金山从疫情中复苏时，他猛地转头查看比分。“这座城市正在崛起，”他指着面前的派对坚称，“但它很脆弱。”
Such a scene would have been unthinkable(难以想象的) a few years ago. During and after the covid pandemic, tech workers toiled remotely, the Financial District was a ghost town and homelessness and public drug use were ubiquitous(无处不在的). Pundits wondered whether a “doom loop(厄运循环)” would sink the world’s tech capital. People flocked to cities with lower taxes and cheaper housing, like Austin, Texas and Miami, Florida. Republicans argued that Americans were voting with their feet(用脚投票) by leaving states run by Democrats. New political rivalries were born. During “The Great Red v Blue State Debate” in 2023, Fox News pitted(使…对抗) Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, against Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. Mr DeSantis gloated(幸灾乐祸地说) that California “ran out of U-Hauls(U-Haul是美国知名卡车租赁公司)” because so many residents were fleeing. He held up a map of San Francisco that marked all the places where human faeces had been found.
这样的场景在几年前是难以想象的。在新冠疫情期间及之后，科技工作者远程办公，金融区成了鬼城，无家可归和公共吸毒现象随处可见。专家们担心“厄运循环”会击垮这个世界科技之都。人们涌向税收更低、房价更便宜的城市，如得克萨斯州的奥斯汀和佛罗里达州的迈阿密。共和党人认为，美国人正在用脚投票，离开民主党执政的州。新的政治对立由此产生。在2023年的“红蓝州大辩论”中，福克斯新闻让加州州长加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）与佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）对阵。德桑蒂斯幸灾乐祸地说，加州“U-Haul租车都租光了”，因为太多居民在逃离。他还举起一张旧金山地图，上面标出了所有发现人类粪便的地方。
Yet pandemic losers and pandemic darlings do not always stay thus. Six years after the world locked down, San Francisco and Miami have seen a reversal in their fortunes. In 2021, San Francisco lost the equivalent of(相当于) nearly 7% of its population to out-migration, but the exodus(大批离开，外流) has subsided(平息，减弱) (see chart). Greater Miami lost the equivalent of 3% of its population due to domestic out-migration in 2025, a higher share than any other large county in America.
然而，疫情中的失意者和宠儿并非一成不变。在全球封锁六年后，旧金山和迈阿密的命运发生了逆转。2021年，旧金山因人口外流损失了近7%的人口，但外流潮已经平息（见图表）。大迈阿密地区在2025年因国内人口外流损失了相当于3%的人口，这一比例高于美国任何其他大县。