After a steady upward climb this year, 30-year bonds in America, France, Japan and Britain are all near their highest since the global financial crisis of 2007-09. That feat is particularly impressive for Britain, where the highs during a fiscal panic in 2022 have been long surpassed. For anyone who was wondering if yields would return to the lows of the 2010s as inflation fell after the pandemic, markets appear to have supplied a decisive answer: they will not.(对于那些曾疑惑收益率是否会随着疫情后通胀回落而重返2010年代低点的人，市场似乎给出了决定性的答案：不会。) If anything(甚至可以说；如果要说有什么不同的话), they are likely to climb higher still.
今年，美国、法国、日本和英国的30年期国债收益率稳步攀升，目前均接近2007-09年全球金融危机以来的最高水平。这一成就对英国而言尤为引人注目，因为2022年财政恐慌期间的高点早已被超越。对于那些曾疑惑随着疫情后通胀回落，收益率是否会重返2010年代低点的人来说，市场似乎给出了决定性的答案：不会。甚至可以说，收益率还可能进一步攀升。
The culprits(罪魁祸首) are clear. Inflation has not quite been beaten, deterring central banks from cutting interest rates. Even Japan is leaving behind(抛弃；摆脱) its loose-money policies (though not enough to strengthen the yen, which both Japan and America have propped up with official purchases). Gaping(巨大的；张开的) rich-world budget deficits show little sign of narrowing meaningfully, raising the possibility that governments eventually force central banks to inflate their debts away(通过通胀稀释债务). Geopolitical ructions(骚乱；纷争), like the Iran war and tariffs, are lifting the compensation for risk that investors demand. It does not help that Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, fumbled an early encounter with the markets.(新任美联储主席凯文·沃什在早期与市场的交锋中失手，这更是雪上加霜。)
罪魁祸首显而易见。通胀尚未被完全击败，这使各国央行不愿降息。就连日本也在逐渐退出宽松货币政策（尽管力度不足以提振日元，日本和美国都通过官方购买来支撑日元）。富裕国家巨大的预算赤字几乎没有明显收窄的迹象，这增加了政府最终迫使央行通过通胀来稀释债务的可能性。地缘政治动荡，如伊朗战争和关税，正在推高投资者要求的风险补偿。新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在早期与市场的交锋中失手，这更是雪上加霜。
High bond yields are a problem for indebted(负债的) governments. Every percentage-point rise in America’s bond yields, for instance, costs it extra interest payments worth 1.3% of annual GDP within a decade. Yet it is getting harder to imagine governments making cuts to offset the squeeze(缓解压力). In America each political party seems to be hoping that any debt crisis lands on the other. France’s presidential election next year could become a fight between populist parties on the left and right. Japan is, bizarrely(奇怪地), undertaking a fiscal stimulus. The longer governments wait to adjust, the bigger the adjustments become.
高债券收益率对负债累累的政府来说是个问题。例如，美国债券收益率每上升一个百分点，十年内就会使其额外支付相当于年度GDP 1.3%的利息。然而，人们越来越难以想象政府会通过削减支出来缓解压力。在美国，每个政党似乎都希望债务危机落在对方头上。法国明年的总统选举可能成为左右翼民粹主义政党之间的争斗。奇怪的是，日本正在进行财政刺激。政府等待调整的时间越长，调整的幅度就越大。