Kevin Warsh enjoys marking a “new chapter”. The newish(较新的，新近的) chair of the Federal Reserve has invoke(援引，引用)d that writerly metaphor at nearly every public appearance since taking charge in May. He wants markets, politicians and households to understand that now things at the Fed will be different. Yet the first months of his tenure have stood out not for novelty but for continuity.(然而，他任期的最初几个月并非以新颖著称，而是以延续性著称。)
凯文·沃什喜欢标榜“新篇章”。这位美联储的新任主席自5月上任以来，几乎每次公开露面都会引用这个文学比喻。他希望市场、政界人士和家庭明白，如今美联储的情况将会有所不同。然而，他任期的最初几个月并非以新颖著称，而是以延续性著称。
Leaf back a year, to the summer of 2025. Then, Jerome Powell’s Fed was uncomfortably caught between wobbly(不稳定的，摇摇欲坠的) jobs numbers and above-target inflation, fuelled by tariffs: a quintessential(典型的，精髓的) but fiddly(棘手的，精细的) central-banking dilemma. To that, Donald Trump added a more unusual political bind(束缚，困境). The president’s attempt to sack(解雇) Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, over alleged wrongdoing on mortgage paperwork threatened to jeopardise(危及，损害) the Fed’s independence. America’s central bankers might think twice before defying demands from the White House for lower rates if this could get them fired.(如果违抗白宫降息的要求可能导致他们被解雇，美国的央行行长们可能会三思而行。)
回翻一年，到2025年夏天。当时，杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的美联储尴尬地夹在摇摇欲坠的就业数据和高于目标的通胀之间，而通胀又因关税而加剧：这是一个典型但棘手的央行困境。对此，唐纳德·特朗普又增加了一个更不寻常的政治束缚。总统试图以涉嫌抵押贷款文件不当行为为由解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，这威胁到美联储的独立性。如果违抗白宫降息的要求可能导致他们被解雇，美国的央行行长们可能会三思而行。
A year on the same story holds, almost beat-for-beat(一模一样，逐拍对应). Inflation is still not back to the 2% target. The latest consumer-price figures for July, released on August 12th, showed that these rose by 3.4% year on year(同比). Monthly “core” goods prices—excluding food and energy—picked up too, suggesting that companies are once again passing tariffs on to shoppers.(月度“核心”商品价格（不包括食品和能源）也回升了，这表明企业再次将关税转嫁给消费者。) Overall core inflation, which includes services, was a little more reassuring(令人安心的), at 2.5%. Still, above-target inflation has already persuaded several rate-setters to dissent(持异议，反对) in favour of higher rates. Markets now peg(固定，钉住) the odds of a hike at the Fed’s next meeting in mid-September at roughly 40%.
一年过去了，同样的故事几乎如出一辙。通胀仍未回到2%的目标水平。8月12日公布的7月最新消费者价格数据显示，这些价格同比上涨了3.4%。月度“核心”商品价格（不包括食品和能源）也回升了，这表明企业再次将关税转嫁给消费者。包括服务业在内的整体核心通胀率略令人安心，为2.5%。尽管如此，高于目标的通胀已经说服了几位利率制定者持异议，主张加息。市场目前预计美联储9月中旬下次会议加息的可能性约为40%。