THE GREAT economic surprise of the Iran war has been that oil prices have stayed relatively contained even with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut.(伊朗战争带来的巨大经济意外是，即使霍尔木兹海峡大部分被封锁，油价仍保持相对受控。) Five months into the war Brent crude remains about $40 below the $126 per barrel intraday high it hit on April 30th; for a while there was even a “mini-glut” of crude oil. As a result motorists and oil importers have not yet faced a severe crunch(危机，困境). And—though it may seem difficult to believe—Iran has had less leverage over President Donald Trump than it might have done. For the reprieve, the world can thank China.
伊朗战争带来的巨大经济意外是，即使霍尔木兹海峡大部分被封锁，油价仍保持相对受控。战争进行五个月后，布伦特原油仍比4月30日触及的每桶126美元的盘中高点低约40美元；有一段时间甚至出现了原油的“迷你过剩”。因此，驾车者和石油进口国尚未面临严重的危机。而且——尽管可能难以置信——伊朗对唐纳德·特朗普总统的影响力比原本可能达到的要小。对于这一喘息之机，世界可以感谢中国。
When Iran started pointing its drones and missiles at tankers crossing the strait, 14m barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil—roughly one-fifth of world output—risked being trapped in the Gulf.(当伊朗开始将无人机和导弹对准穿越海峡的油轮时，每天1400万桶原油面临被困在波斯湾的风险。) Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) soon redirected(改道，重新定向) about 5m b/d via pipelines. Strategic-stock releases by rich countries, including America and Japan, covered another chunk. But the biggest shock absorber(减震器，缓冲因素) has been a near-halving of China’s crude-oil imports, to 5.5m b/d. Curtailing China’s imports has been a feat of state engineering(国家工程壮举), achieved by releasing stocks, restricting exports and managing demand.
当伊朗开始将无人机和导弹对准穿越海峡的油轮时，每天1400万桶的原油——约占世界产量的五分之一——面临被困在波斯湾的风险。沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋很快通过管道改道输送了约500万桶/日。包括美国和日本在内的富裕国家释放战略储备，弥补了另一部分。但最大的减震器是中国原油进口量近乎减半，降至550万桶/日。削减中国的进口是一项国家工程壮举，通过释放库存、限制出口和管理需求来实现。
It is worrying when China’s autocratic(专制的，独裁的) rulers have such a firm grip on any market. They often use their leverage in the global economy—from being the biggest importer of barley to refining more rare-earth elements than anyone else—to bully critics and impose costs on countries that irk them.(他们经常利用在全球经济中的影响力——从成为最大的大麦进口国到精炼比任何其他国家都多的稀土元素——来欺凌批评者，并对惹恼他们的国家施加代价。) The Iran war, though, has shown that oil consumers can benefit when big buyers exercise their market power.
当中国的威权统治者对任何市场有如此牢固的控制时，这令人担忧。他们经常利用在全球经济中的影响力——从成为最大的大麦进口国到精炼比任何其他国家都多的稀土元素——来欺凌批评者，并对惹恼他们的国家施加代价。然而，伊朗战争表明，当大买家行使市场力量时，石油消费者可以受益。
A slippery business
一项棘手的生意