One evening six years ago Saakin Abdi, a young civil servant(公务员), enjoyed an ice-cream in central Mogadishu. Back then, residing in the Somali capital meant living with the knowledge that at any moment you could be the next victim of al-Shabab, al-Qaeda’s richest and deadliest affiliate.(那时，住在摩加迪沙意味着随时可能成为青年党的下一个受害者。) The next evening, a friend of Ms Abdi’s was in the same ice-cream parlour when a militant(武装分子) burst through the door and blew himself up(引爆自己). Her friend and six others were killed. They were among at least 320 people who died in al-Shabab attacks in the city in 2020.
六年前的一个晚上，年轻的公务员萨金·阿卜迪在摩加迪沙市中心享用冰淇淋。那时，居住在索马里首都意味着要时刻意识到，你随时可能成为青年党——基地组织最富有、最致命的附属组织——的下一个受害者。第二天晚上，阿卜迪女士的一位朋友在同一家冰淇淋店时，一名武装分子冲进门并引爆了自己。她的朋友和其他六人丧生。他们是2020年该市至少320名死于青年党袭击的人中的一部分。
Mogadishu has been synonymous with(与……同义) violence ever since Somalia’s central state collapsed(崩溃) in the 1990s. Yet in recent years it has undergone(经历) a quiet transformation. Al-Shabab’s attacks in the city have fallen from 144 in the third quarter of 2022, when Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office(就职) as president, to just five in the second quarter of this year. Data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED), a monitoring group, suggest the number of deaths in Mogadishu linked to al-Shabab is on track(有望) in 2026 to be the lowest since the group emerged(出现) in the mid-2000s (see chart).
自1990年代索马里中央政府垮台以来，摩加迪沙一直是暴力的代名词。然而近年来，它经历了悄然的转变。青年党在该市的袭击从2022年第三季度（哈桑·谢赫·马哈茂德就任总统时）的144起，下降到今年第二季度的仅5起。监测组织“武装冲突地点和事件数据项目”（ACLED）收集的数据表明，2026年摩加迪沙与青年党相关的死亡人数有望成为该组织2000年代中期出现以来的最低水平（见图表）。
“This is the biggest achievement of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration(政府),” says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank. Residents used to avoid venturing out(冒险外出) after dark, because “al-Shabab, or those fighting it, might kill you,” recalls Ms Abdi. Today, dozens of new cafés are open past midnight, thronged(挤满) with young Somalis posting videos on TikTok and Instagram. On July 1st Mr Mohamud, who has survived multiple assassination(暗杀) attempts including one in Baidoa, the seat of government of South-West state, earlier this year, marked Somalia’s independence day by giving an unprecedented(史无前例的) public address at one of Mogadishu’s most frequently targeted junctions(路口). Hundreds joined him.
“这是哈桑·谢赫·马哈茂德政府最大的成就，”智库国际危机组织（ICG）的奥马尔·马哈茂德说。居民过去常常避免天黑后外出，因为“青年党或与之作战的人可能会杀了你，”阿卜迪女士回忆道。如今，数十家新咖啡馆营业到午夜之后，挤满了在TikTok和Instagram上发视频的索马里年轻人。7月1日，马哈茂德先生——他曾多次躲过暗杀，包括今年早些时候在西南州政府所在地拜多阿的一次——在摩加迪沙最常遭袭击的路口之一发表了一次史无前例的公开演讲，以此纪念索马里独立日。数百人加入了他。
