IN G.K. CHESTERTON’S parable(寓言；比喻) of the fence, those eager to tear down seemingly useless structures are urged to understand why they were built in the first place. Chesterton’s fence has long been received wisdom(普遍看法；公认的智慧) among American conservatives of a certain age, but Peter Navarro, Donald Trump’s chief trade ideologue(理论家；空想家), seems to have missed the memo. In a new paper published by Mr Navarro’s office in the White House, titled “The Great Transshipment Scam”, dozens of countries from Japan to Jordan stand accused of abetting a Chinese plot to dodge American tariffs. Absurd as this claim is, the paper is nevertheless a vivid exposition of the Trump administration’s muddled thinking on trade.(尽管这一指控荒谬，但该报告生动展示了特朗普政府在贸易上的混乱思维。)
在G.K.切斯特顿的“围栏”寓言中，那些急于拆除看似无用结构的人被敦促先理解它们当初为何而建。切斯特顿的围栏长期以来一直被某一年龄段的美国保守派奉为智慧，但唐纳德·特朗普的首席贸易理论家彼得·纳瓦罗似乎错过了这份备忘录。在纳瓦罗办公室发布的一份题为“伟大的转运骗局”的新报告中，从日本到约旦的数十个国家被指控协助中国逃避美国关税的阴谋。尽管这一指控荒谬，但该报告仍然生动地展示了特朗普政府在贸易上的混乱思维。
Start with(从……开始) the “great reallocation(重新分配；再配置)”, Mr Navarro’s term for the shifts that followed Mr Trump’s first wave of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. At the time, free-traders warned that a gap in tariff rates between China and the rest of the world would backfire(适得其反；产生反效果). It would create an irresistible incentive(激励；刺激) to evade duties, legally or otherwise, while crimping growth(抑制增长). America understood this well when, in the 1940s, it was the primary author of a global trading system based on non-discrimination(基于非歧视原则的全球贸易体系).
从“大重新分配”说起，这是纳瓦罗对特朗普2018年第一波对中国商品加征关税后所引发变化的说法。当时，自由贸易者警告说，中国与世界其他地区之间的关税税率差距会适得其反。这将产生一种不可抗拒的逃避关税的激励，无论是合法还是非法，同时抑制增长。美国在20世纪40年代作为基于非歧视原则的全球贸易体系的主要缔造者时，对此深有体会。
Mr Trump charged ahead(不顾一切地前进) anyway. The average tariff-rate differential(差额；差异) between China and the rest of the world widened from 0.9 percentage points at the start of 2018 to 29 points last year (see chart). The predictable happened: the share of American imports coming from China tumbled(暴跌；骤降) from 21% to 9%, while that from other countries soared. In “connector” economies such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico, imports from China and exports to America rose in tandem(协同地；同时地). Messrs Trump and Navarro now face a problem of their own making(自己造成的).
特朗普先生还是不管不顾地往前冲。中国与世界其他地区之间的平均关税税率差距从2018年初的0.9个百分点扩大到去年的29个百分点（见图表）。可预见的事情发生了：美国从中国进口的份额从21%暴跌至9%，而来自其他国家的份额则飙升。在越南、马来西亚和墨西哥等“连接器”经济体中，从中国的进口和对美国的出口同步上升。特朗普和纳瓦罗先生现在面临着自己制造的问题。