
Before the midterm elections Republicans claim to have at least one thing going for them(对他们有利的(事)): money, and lots of it. At first glance, the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission show Republicans with a staggeringly(惊人地,令人难以置信地) large cash advantage. Across their party apparatus(机构,组织,机制) and political action committees, or PACs(政治行动委员会), Republicans have amassed(积累,积聚(大量)) around $1bn, more than twice as much as Democrats have (see chart).
在中期选举之前,共和党人声称他们至少有一件事是有利的:钱,而且是很多钱。乍一看,向联邦选举委员会提交的最新文件显示,共和党拥有惊人的现金优势。在共和党的政党组织和政治行动委员会(PAC)中,共和党人已积累了约10亿美元,是民主党人的两倍多(见图表)。
However, this should give Republicans scant(不足的,微小的) encouragement. The party’s biggest war-chest(战争基金,竞选资金储备) belongs to MAGA Inc, Donald Trump’s super PAC, and the president has declined(拒绝(正式)) to say how much he will contribute to individual campaigns. While Republicans remain captive to(受制于,被……控制) the president’s whim(一时的兴致,突发奇想), Democratic fundraising is decentralised(分散的,去中心化的). Individual candidates are outraising(筹款超过(对手)) their opponents in competitive races. That means they have more cash on hand and more enthusiastic supporters, too.
然而,这不应给共和党人带来多少鼓舞。该党最大的金库属于唐纳德·特朗普的超级政治行动委员会“MAGA Inc”,而总统拒绝透露他将为各竞选活动贡献多少。当共和党人仍受制于总统的一时兴起时,民主党的筹款则是分散的。在竞争激烈的竞选中,各候选人筹得的资金超过了对手。这意味着他们手头有更多现金,也有更热情的支持者。

Money cannot buy victory, but it is not immaterial(无关紧要的,非物质的), either. Candidates raise money to pay for campaign operations and to buy advertisements. Get-out-the-vote(动员投票(的)) efforts can boost(提升,促进) a candidate’s prospects, though the effect seems to decline when a campaigner is already well known. In competitive general elections for federal office, it is usually hard to measure the effect of extra advertisements because airwaves are already saturated(饱和的,充斥的). The recent governors’ primary in Wisconsin provided a rare natural experiment(自然实验(非人为控制的实验)), albeit(尽管,虽然) not in a general election. Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist, did not buy a single television ad. The Economist’s analysis, controlling for factors such as voters’ median age and education level by county, suggests that her lack of television advertising helped ensure her defeat in the Democratic primary on August 11th.(《经济学人》的分析在控制相关因素后,认为她缺乏电视广告导致了败选。)
金钱买不来胜利,但也不是无关紧要的。候选人筹集资金用于竞选运作和购买广告。动员投票的努力可以提升候选人的前景,尽管当竞选者已经广为人知时,这种效果似乎会减弱。在竞争激烈的联邦公职大选中,通常很难衡量额外广告的效果,因为电视频道已经饱和。最近威斯康星州的州长初选提供了一个罕见的自然实验,尽管不是在大选中。民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪没有购买任何电视广告。《经济学人》的分析在控制了选民的年龄中位数和各县教育水平等因素后,认为她缺乏电视广告是导致她在8月11日民主党初选中落败的原因之一。