CLOSE TO A third of global wheat exports sail out of Russian and Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. In 2022, when invading Russian forces attacked Ukrainian infrastructure in the region, the price of wheat and other grains spiked(急剧上升) worldwide. It took a Turkish-brokered deal and the establishment of a protected Ukrainian shipping corridor to bring them down.(经过土耳其斡旋的协议和建立受保护的航运走廊，价格才得以回落。) In recent weeks renewed fighting has again been disrupting exports—and this time it is not only Ukraine’s sales that are getting thumped(重创，打击). Analysts have started to ask if a second global grain crunch(危机，短缺) could be on the way.
全球近三分之一的小麦出口从俄罗斯和乌克兰位于黑海和亚速海的港口启运。2022年，当入侵的俄罗斯军队袭击该地区的乌克兰基础设施时，全球小麦和其他谷物价格飙升。经过土耳其斡旋达成协议并建立受保护的乌克兰航运走廊，价格才得以回落。最近几周，新一轮战斗再次扰乱出口——而这一次，受重创的不仅是乌克兰的销售。分析师已开始质疑，第二次全球谷物危机是否正在来临。
In previous attacks Russia fired its missiles at infrastructure in Odessa and other Ukrainian ports. Then, starting in July, it began targeting(以……为目标) the merchant ships that sail to them. Few crews are now willing to run the risk(冒风险). The step up(加剧，升级) in Russian attacks is in part a response to strikes that Ukraine has been launching against Russian targets. Ukrainian drones(无人机) have more or less(或多或少，几乎) closed the Sea of Azov to Russian shipping. This month Ukraine also badly damaged grain terminals at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk—the largest wheat-exporting port in the world, through which over 30% of Russia’s wheat exports pass.(本月，乌克兰还严重破坏了俄罗斯新罗西斯克港的谷物码头——这是世界上最大的小麦出口港，俄罗斯超过30%的小麦出口都经过这里。)
在之前的袭击中，俄罗斯向敖德萨和其他乌克兰港口的基础设施发射导弹。随后，从7月开始，它开始 targeting 驶往这些港口的商船。如今很少有船员愿意冒这个风险。俄罗斯袭击升级，部分是对乌克兰持续打击俄罗斯目标的回应。乌克兰无人机已基本使亚速海对俄罗斯航运关闭。本月，乌克兰还严重破坏了俄罗斯新罗西斯克港的谷物码头——这是世界上最大的小麦出口港，俄罗斯超过30%的小麦出口都经过这里。
The impact is already stark(明显的，严峻的). In August last year Russia and Ukraine exported 6.3m tonnes of wheat between them. That made up(构成，占据) a big dollop(一大块，大量) of the 16m tonnes that crossed borders around the world that month. This August their combined exports may reach only about 2.5m tonnes, and could fall further if hostilities(敌对行动，战争) continue, reckons(估计，认为) Ishan Bhanu of Kpler, a data firm. Disruption to agricultural exports leaving the Black Sea is “the worst it has ever been(有史以来最严重的)” since the region became a major route for global foodstuffs, says Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank.
影响已经显而易见。去年8月，俄罗斯和乌克兰共出口630万吨小麦。这占当月全球跨境贸易的1600万吨中的很大一部分。今年8月，它们的出口总量可能仅达到约250万吨，如果敌对行动继续，还可能进一步下降，数据公司Kpler的Ishan Bhanu估计。黑海农业出口的中断是“自该地区成为全球食品主要通道以来最严重的”，荷兰合作银行分析师Carlos Mera表示。
