
The background music of Donald Trump’s second term has been the sound of norms breaking. On economic policy alone, the president has used tariffs to usurp Congress’s taxing powers and launched attack after attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve, which he accuses of keeping interest rates too high.(仅在经济政策方面,总统就利用关税篡夺了国会的征税权,并接二连三地攻击美联储的独立性,指责其将利率维持得过高。) A year and a half into Mr Trump’s second administration, it is tempting to tune the noise out(对噪音充耳不闻). However, the latest transgression(越轨行为,违规) deserves to echo far and wide.
唐纳德·特朗普第二任期的背景音乐,一直是规范被打破的声音。仅在经济政策方面,总统就利用关税篡夺了国会的征税权,并接二连三地攻击美联储的独立性,指责其将利率维持得过高。特朗普第二届政府已过去一年半,人们很容易对这些噪音充耳不闻。然而,最新的越轨行为值得广泛传播。
On August 19th Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, unexpectedly announced that the government would increase the amount of long-dated(长期的(债券)) debt it buys back. The stated reason—to ensure liquidity in the market for long-term Treasury bonds that looked perfectly liquid as things stood—never sounded plausible.(官方给出的理由——确保长期国债市场的流动性,而该市场在现状下看起来流动性十足——听起来从来就不令人信服。) From the start the real one appeared to be to keep Mr Trump happy by raising Treasuries’ price and thus lowering their yields(收益率), which determine how much Americans pay for a mortgage. Ahead of midterm elections where voters seem poised to(准备好,随时可能) punish the president’s Republican Party for stubbornly rising prices, it also looks like politicisation(政治化) of the world’s most important asset market. Worse, Mr Bessent may not be finished with his meddling(干预,干涉).
8月19日,财政部长斯科特·贝森特出人意料地宣布,政府将增加长期债务的回购规模。官方给出的理由——确保长期国债市场的流动性,而该市场在现状下看起来流动性十足——听起来从来就不令人信服。从一开始,真正的目的似乎是取悦特朗普,通过推高国债价格、进而压低其收益率(这决定了美国人支付多少房贷)来实现。在中期选举前夕,选民似乎准备因物价顽固上涨而惩罚总统所在的共和党,此举看起来也像是将全球最重要的资产市场政治化。更糟糕的是,贝森特可能不会就此罢手。
Bond yields have been creeping up(缓慢上升) lately, and not just in America. The reasons are not mysterious. Inflation is sticky(粘性的,顽固的), budget deficits are widening and government debts are piling up(堆积,累积). The day Mr Bessent waded into(涉足,介入) the bond market America’s total public debt exceeded $40trn, equivalent to more than 120% of GDP. As the rich world’s central bankers arrive in Jackson Hole(杰克逊霍尔,央行年会地点) on August 27th for their annual retreat, they will commiserate(同情,怜悯) with one another.
近期债券收益率一直在攀升,而且不仅限于美国。原因并不神秘。通胀粘性十足,预算赤字不断扩大,政府债务不断堆积。贝森特涉足债券市场当天,美国公共债务总额超过40万亿美元,相当于GDP的120%以上。8月27日,富裕世界的央行行长们齐聚杰克逊霍尔参加年度会议,他们将相互表示同情。
The past is still the same country
过去仍是同一个国家