THE WARNINGS were apocalyptic(预言世界末日的；灾难性的). An “economic D-Day(经济上的诺曼底登陆（重大打击）)” was looming for Iran, blustered(虚张声势地说；咆哮) Donald Trump. It would be “the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled(集结；组织) against an adversary”, declared Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary. Having failed to fell the Iranian regime with military might, America was turning to economic weapons.(既然未能以军事力量推翻伊朗政权，美国正转而诉诸经济武器。)
这些警告如同末日预言。唐纳德·特朗普虚张声势地宣称，伊朗正面临“经济上的诺曼底登陆”。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特宣称，这将是“有史以来针对敌手发动的最大规模金融攻势”。既然未能以军事力量推翻伊朗政权，美国正转而诉诸经济武器。
Yet Operation Economic Outcast, announced on August 24th, looks unlikely to bring about(导致；引起) the fall of the regime. Nearly 60 individuals, entities(实体；组织) and ships will come under(受到；遭受) fresh sanctions, as will five sectors of Iran’s economy, from digital assets to shipping. But America has so far only threatened to use its most potent(强有力的；有效的) economic weapon: secondary sanctions, on countries that trade with Iran or help its regime move money around. There is good reason to think it may never fire that weapon at full blast(全力地；全速地).
然而，8月24日宣布的“经济弃儿行动”似乎不太可能导致政权更迭。近60名个人、实体和船只将受到新一轮制裁，伊朗经济的五个部门（从数字资产到航运）也将受到制裁。但美国迄今只是威胁要使用其最强大的经济武器：针对与伊朗贸易或帮助其政权转移资金的国家实施次级制裁。我们有充分理由认为，它可能永远不会全力使用这一武器。
Mr Bessent himself suggested that doing so might “blow up(炸毁；使崩溃) the global financial system”. He may well(很可能；有充分理由) be right. The biggest risk comes from China, which despite sanctions buys around 90% of Iranian crude(原油；天然的) exports, at a discount(以折扣价). Forcing Chinese financial institutions to choose between the dollar and Iranian oil would be a dramatic escalation(升级；加剧) in America’s confrontation(对抗；冲突) with the world’s second-biggest economy. Investors would worry about the consequences for trade and finance. The prospect of such a fallout curbed the administration last year after China threatened to withhold the supply of rare earths—one reason Mr Trump is seeking warmer relations with China today.(去年，在中国威胁停止供应稀土之后，这种后果的前景抑制了政府的行动——这也是特朗普如今寻求与中国改善关系的一个原因。)
贝森特本人表示，这样做可能“炸毁全球金融体系”。他很可能说得没错。最大的风险来自中国，尽管受到制裁，中国仍以折扣价购买伊朗约90%的原油出口。迫使中国的金融机构在美元和伊朗石油之间做出选择，将是美国与世界第二大经济体对抗的急剧升级。投资者会担心对贸易和金融的后果。去年，在中国威胁停止供应稀土之后，这种后果的前景抑制了政府的行动——这也是特朗普如今寻求与中国改善关系的一个原因。
