
“THE WORLD is a healthier but not a safer place,” wrote The Economist in 1953 after the death of Joseph Stalin. This newspaper was not alone in its apprehension(忧虑,担心). Well-known Russian totalitarianism(极权主义) seemed somehow more manageable than whatever the future held. Fast-forward seven decades and the sentiment has changed little. No matter what the Kremlin does, fears that, if resisted, it may do something even more reckless are still used as an argument for caving in to Russian demands.(无论克里姆林宫做什么,人们仍以“若抵抗,它可能更鲁莽”为由向俄屈服。)
“世界变得更健康了,但并未变得更安全。”《经济学人》在1953年约瑟夫·斯大林去世后如此写道。本刊并非唯一感到忧虑的媒体。为人熟知的俄罗斯极权主义,似乎比未来可能出现的任何情况都更易于应对。快进七十年,这种情绪几乎未变。无论克里姆林宫做什么,人们仍以“若加以抵抗,它可能做出更鲁莽之事”的恐惧为由,向俄罗斯的要求屈服。
Take a conversation with Andrey Melnichenko, a Russian oligarch(寡头,寡头政治家), published recently in these pages. He acknowledged that Vladimir Putin had made mistakes but argued that whatever comes next could be worse still; that Russia, if pushed too hard, might “descend into chaos(陷入混乱)” or even “use a tactical(战术的,策略的) nuclear weapon”. The bottom line(底线,最重要的事实) was clear: let Russia do as it pleases, or else. It is a dead-end(死胡同的,无出路的) approach.
以安德烈·梅利尼琴科为例,这位俄罗斯寡头最近在本刊发表了一次对话。他承认弗拉基米尔·普京犯了错误,但辩称无论接下来发生什么,情况可能更糟;俄罗斯若被逼得太紧,可能“陷入混乱”甚至“使用战术核武器”。底线很明确:要么让俄罗斯为所欲为,否则后果自负。这是一种死胡同式的做法。
For years after the fall of the Soviet Union, the West bent over backwards(竭尽全力,拼命) not to humiliate(羞辱,使丢脸) Russia and to turn it into a responsible international stakeholder(利益相关者). In 1997 alone, Moscow was invited to join the G7, signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act(北约-俄罗斯基本法案) and entered into a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement with the European Union. In the post-Soviet era, each American presidential administration has tried to bring Russia into the fold by signing treaties, looking its leader deep in the eyes or pressing reset buttons.(在后苏联时代,每届美国政府都试图通过签署条约、与俄领导人深情对视或按下“重启键”来拉拢俄罗斯。) So did former Soviet satellite states, including Poland.
苏联解体后的多年里,西方竭尽全力不羞辱俄罗斯,并试图将其转变为负责任的国际利益攸关方。仅1997年一年,莫斯科就受邀加入七国集团,签署了《北约-俄罗斯基本法案》,并与欧盟达成了《伙伴关系与合作协定》。在后苏联时代,每届美国政府都试图通过签署条约、与俄领导人深情对视或按下“重启键”来拉拢俄罗斯。包括波兰在内的前苏联卫星国也是如此。