
To be European is to experience fine cuisines, walkable cities and constant nagging about the many ways in which your economy is falling behind America’s. In recent years weighty reports bemoaning(哀叹;惋惜) Europe’s lagging productivity have become a literary genre in their own right(本身;凭自身资格). So news in recent weeks that America’s government debt had passed $40trn, raising questions about how long bond-market types will keep funding its persistent budget shortfalls, have been greeted in some European quarters with a degree of Schadenfreude(幸灾乐祸) (or whatever the Greek equivalent is). This is a continent that knows a thing or two(颇有了解;略知一二) about spiralling debt crises, after all. How refreshing it might be if the tables were turned, and Europeans could be the ones making recommendations about how politicians in Washington should be running their economic affairs.(如果角色互换,欧洲人也能给华盛顿提建议,那该多好。)
身为欧洲人,意味着享受精致美食、宜居城市,以及不断被唠叨你的经济在哪些方面落后于美国。近年来,哀叹欧洲生产率落后的重磅报告本身已成为一种文学体裁。因此,最近几周美国国债突破40万亿美元、引发人们质疑债券市场人士还能多久继续为其持续预算缺口提供资金的消息,在欧洲某些圈子里迎来了一定程度的幸灾乐祸(或者管它希腊语怎么说)。毕竟,这是一个对螺旋式债务危机颇有了解的欧洲大陆。如果角色互换,欧洲人也能就华盛顿的政客们应如何管理经济事务提出建议,那该多么令人耳目一新。
Indeed, Europe looks at first glance(乍一看;初看) to be in markedly(显著地;明显地) better fiscal shape than its transatlantic rival—a rare case in which economic data seemingly favour the old continent. The total debt pile of governments in the European Union amounts to(总计;相当于) a mere €15.7trn ($18.2trn), in an economy not much smaller than America’s (Europeans are poorer but there are more of them). Two decades ago both places had debt-to-GDP ratios of around 65%. Now America’s has swollen(膨胀;肿胀) to over 120%, and the IMF thinks it will be north of(超过;多于) 140% by 2031. Europe’s is at “just” 83%, and its future is essentially flat—still in vaguely prudent(审慎的;谨慎的) territory. But Europeans tempted to subject those stateside to sermons about economic management (does America need a Draghi report(德拉吉报告:关于欧洲竞争力的报告) of its own?) should hold their fire(忍住不发火;暂缓行动). For though America has the bigger debt, Europe has the bigger debt problem.(因为尽管美国债务更多,欧洲的债务问题更严重。) America’s advantages include the world’s reserve currency and a growing economy. Europe’s disadvantage can be summed up in one word: France.
的确,乍一看,欧洲的财政状况明显好于其跨大西洋对手——这是经济数据看似有利于旧大陆的罕见情况。欧盟各国政府的债务总额仅为15.7万亿欧元(合18.2万亿美元),而其经济规模并不比美国小多少(欧洲人更穷,但人口更多)。二十年前,两地的债务与GDP之比都在65%左右。如今,美国的债务已膨胀至120%以上,国际货币基金组织认为到2031年将超过140%。欧洲的债务“仅”为83%,且未来基本持平——仍处于大致审慎的区间。但那些想对美国人大谈经济管理(美国是否需要自己的德拉吉报告?)的欧洲人应该三思。因为尽管美国债务更多,但欧洲的债务问题更严重。美国的优势包括世界储备货币和不断增长的经济。欧洲的劣势可以用一个词概括:法国。
Comparing European and American debt is trickier(更棘手的;更复杂的) than the headline numbers suggest. America owes too much, no doubt, but Europe owes it in all the wrong places. When it comes to(当谈到;就...而言) handling interest payments on trillions in federal bonds, America is stronger than the sum of its parts(各部分之和): the entire union stands behind every dollar owed. In Europe, by contrast, most borrowing is contracted(签订;承包) by 27 member states, each of which must repay its own debt lest(以免;唯恐) the union as a whole totter(摇摇欲坠;蹒跚). That makes the EU (or at least the euro zone at its heart) only as strong as its weakest link(取决于最薄弱的环节)—as Greece once showed when it threatened default. Lots of countries in the EU have manageable debt piles, notably Germany and its northern neighbours. Others, like Greece and Spain, have high debt but enough growth to appease(安抚;绥靖) the bond vigilantes(债券义和团:指通过抛售债券惩罚财政不审慎政府的投资者). France stands out for having neither fiscal space (its debts amount to 118% of GDP) nor growth (an underwhelming(令人失望的;平淡的) 0% in the most recent quarter).
比较欧洲和美国的债务比表面数字所显示的更为棘手。毫无疑问,美国欠债太多,但欧洲欠债的地方都不对。在处理数万亿美元联邦债券的利息支付方面,美国比其各部分之和更强大:整个联邦为每一美元债务背书。相比之下,在欧洲,大部分借款由27个成员国承担,每个国家都必须偿还自己的债务,以免整个欧盟摇摇欲坠。这使得欧盟(或至少其核心的欧元区)的强弱取决于其最薄弱的环节——正如希腊曾威胁违约时所展示的那样。欧盟许多国家的债务规模可控,尤其是德国及其北欧邻国。其他国家,如希腊和西班牙,债务虽高,但有足够的增长来安抚债券市场的“义和团”。法国则两者皆无:既没有财政空间(其债务占GDP的118%),也没有增长(最近一季度增长仅为令人失望的0%)。
Après moi, le debt-luge
我死后,债务雪橇