Bears, bulls, hawks, doves: each animal in the macroeconomic menagerie can be found between the peaks, prairies and ranches of Jackson Hole, Wyoming.(熊、牛、鹰、鸽：在杰克逊霍尔的山水间，宏观经济动物园中的每种动物都能找到。) During the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual central-banker bash on August 27th-29th your columnist spotted a black bear and learned the rudiments(基本原理；初步知识) of cattle-roping. (The trick to roping a bull, it turns out(结果证明；原来是), is knowing when to let go.) But it was a hawk that was the talk of the town(全城热议的话题).
熊、牛、鹰、鸽：在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的群山、草原和牧场之间，宏观经济动物园里的每一种动物都能找到。在8月27日至29日堪萨斯城联邦储备银行举办的年度央行行长聚会上，本专栏作者看到了一头黑熊，还学到了套牛的基本技巧。（事实证明，套公牛的要诀在于知道何时松手。）但真正成为小镇热议话题的是一只鹰。
Kevin Warsh, the new-ish Fed chair, arrived in the Grand Tetons after a frustrating start. Markets had been baffled by his gnomic(高深莫测的；精辟而晦涩的), occasionally contradictory press conferences. Worries lingered that he lacked the backbone(骨气；勇气；脊梁) to defy Donald Trump. A week earlier Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, had meddled(干涉；插手) in America’s bond market, which smelled like(让人感觉像；有……的味道) pre-midterm politicking. Despite those efforts, yields continued to surge(急剧上升；飙升).
新任美联储主席凯文·沃什在经历了一个令人沮丧的开局后抵达大提顿山。市场一直被他高深莫测、偶尔自相矛盾的新闻发布会搞得困惑不已。人们担心他缺乏对抗唐纳德·特朗普的骨气。一周前，财政部长斯科特·贝森特干预了美国债券市场，这看起来像是中期选举前的政治操弄。尽管有这些动作，收益率仍在持续飙升。
Fortunately for Mr Warsh, the upside of(……的好处/积极面) low expectations is that they are easier to surpass. By that standard, the hawk soared(高飞；猛涨). After reiterating(重申；反复说) his dislike of explaining himself to markets, Mr Warsh did just that. He walked through(逐一讲解；仔细说明) inflation (troubling) and unemployment (not so): the sort of “reaction function” he’d disavowed(否认；拒绝承认), and a hawkish one, too. He emphasised the Fed’s main inflation gauge over funky(花哨的；新潮的；怪异的) alternatives. Insiders saw the clawprints(爪印；痕迹) of career staffers. The hawkish talk half-worked. That day markets shortened the odds(缩短赔率；增加可能性) of a rate hike but, reassuringly, without a further rise in long-term yields. Still, tough talk can do only so much(作用有限；只能做到这个程度): yields resumed their upward march the following week.
对沃什先生来说幸运的是，低预期的好处在于更容易被超越。按照这个标准，这只鹰翱翔了。在重申自己不喜欢向市场解释之后，沃什先生恰恰这么做了。他逐一分析了通胀（令人不安）和失业（尚可）：这正是他曾否认的那种“反应函数”，而且是一种鹰派的反应函数。他强调了美联储的主要通胀指标，而非那些花哨的替代指标。内部人士从中看到了职业幕僚的爪印。这番鹰派言论只奏效了一半。当天，市场缩短了加息概率的预期，但令人安心的是，长期收益率并未进一步上升。然而，强硬言论的作用有限：收益率在接下来的一周又恢复了上升势头。
A different beast
另一种野兽