WHEN MEXICO presents its budget for 2027, which the government of Claudia Sheinbaum must do by September 8th, the stakes(赌注，风险) will be unusually high. In May one credit-rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded(下调（评级）) Mexican government debt to a notch above junk(垃圾级（债券）). Another, S&P Global, warned it could do so soon. A third, Fitch, already rates Mexican bonds as barely investment grade. Mexico is paying over the odds(超出正常范围，过高) to borrow in dollars: yields(收益率) on its ten-year dollar bonds are 6.4%, higher than for many junk-rated countries like Guatemala. The government is paying 9.3% to borrow for ten years in pesos, up from a two-year low of 8.5% last October. “Budget credibility(可信度，信誉) is key,” says Renzo Merino of Moody’s.
当墨西哥提交2027年预算时——克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆政府必须在9月8日前完成——赌注将异常之高。5月，信用评级机构穆迪将墨西哥政府债务下调至仅比垃圾级高一档。另一家机构标普全球警告称，它可能很快也会这么做。第三家机构惠誉已将墨西哥债券评为勉强达到投资级。墨西哥以美元借款的代价过高：其十年期美元债券收益率达6.4%，高于危地马拉等许多垃圾级国家。政府以比索借款十年的利率为9.3%，高于去年10月8.5%的两年低点。“预算可信度是关键，”穆迪的伦佐·梅里诺表示。
Mexico had won that credibility in recent decades. But in 2024, as Ms Sheinbaum’s took over from her leftist predecessor(前任) and mentor(导师，指导者), Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the fiscal deficit(财政赤字) reached 5.7% of GDP, the highest in almost 40 years. It has since hovered(徘徊，盘旋) around 5%. Ms Sheinbaum says it will fall to 4.1% next year, but that is still higher than ideal. With economic growth around 1%, public debt has risen from 52% of GDP in 2019 to 63%. Three-quarters of the budget goes on pensions(养老金), social transfers(社会转移支付) and servicing(偿还（债务）) debt. Pemex, Mexico’s state oil giant, is draining(消耗，耗尽) a lot of what is left. The government has given it $130bn since 2018 (not counting off-budget(预算外的) support). México Evalúa, a think-tank(智库), calculates that of every ten pesos Pemex sent to the treasury(国库，财政部) between January and June, almost eight flowed right back(直接流回).
近几十年来，墨西哥曾赢得这种信誉。但在2024年，当辛鲍姆女士从其左翼前任兼导师安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔手中接过权力时，财政赤字达到GDP的5.7%，为近40年来最高。此后一直徘徊在5%左右。辛鲍姆女士表示明年将降至4.1%，但仍高于理想水平。在经济增速约1%的情况下，公共债务已从2019年占GDP的52%升至63%。四分之三的预算用于养老金、社会转移支付和偿债。墨西哥国家石油巨头Pemex正在消耗剩余的大部分资金。自2018年以来，政府已向其提供1300亿美元（不包括预算外支持）。智库México Evalúa计算，1月至6月间，Pemex每向国库缴纳10比索，就有近8比索流回。
The result is stingy(吝啬的，不足的) public investment, which Mexico needs if growth is to pick up(好转，复苏). Private investment, too, is weak: it fell for 19 straight months until the end of March. Hopes that trade wars would lead multinational companies to “nearshore(近岸外包)” supply chains closer to American customers have mostly been dashed(破灭，使受挫). Investor confidence has been hit by uncertainty over the fate of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which America’s president is dismantling(拆除，废除). Domestic reforms, notably to elect judges, raise questions about Mexico’s rule of law(法治).
结果是公共投资吝啬，而墨西哥若想提振增长，就需要公共投资。私人投资同样疲软：截至3月底已连续19个月下滑。贸易战将促使跨国公司把供应链“近岸”到更靠近美国客户的地方——这一希望大多已破灭。投资者信心受到《美墨加协定》命运不确定性的打击，美国总统正在拆解该协定。国内改革，尤其是选举法官的改革，引发了对墨西哥法治的质疑。