THE THEORY behind Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is simple: America holds all the cards(掌握所有优势). “WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US,” Mr Trump wrote on social media on August 24th. A week later Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, was similarly dismissive(轻蔑的，不屑一顾的) of Canada’s retaliation. “I don’t think you can be in a tit-for-tat with someone who’s 13 times larger than you are.”(我认为你不可能和一个比你大13倍的国家进行针锋相对的较量。)
唐纳德·特朗普对加拿大发起的贸易战，其背后的理论很简单：美国掌握着所有筹码。8月24日，特朗普在社交媒体上写道：“我们不需要加拿大，他们需要我们。”一周后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特对加拿大的报复同样不屑一顾：“我认为你不可能和一个比你大13倍的国家进行针锋相对的较量。”
But that understates(低估，轻描淡写) America’s exposure(暴露，面临的风险) to one of its biggest commercial partners. The two countries traded more than $870bn in goods and services last year. Canada buys roughly 15% of all American goods exports and is the top export destination for 34 states. In carmaking, parts can criss-cross(交叉往来，穿梭) the border several times before a vehicle is finished. For America as a whole, the stakes of the trade war may look small. But for particular industries and states, they are anything but.(对整个美国而言，贸易战的风险可能看起来很小。但对特定行业和州来说，风险绝非如此。)
但这低估了美国对其最大商业伙伴之一的依赖程度。去年，两国商品和服务贸易额超过8700亿美元。加拿大购买了美国约15%的商品出口，并且是34个州的最大出口目的地。在汽车制造中，零部件在整车完成前可能多次跨境。对整个美国而言，贸易战的风险可能看起来很小。但对特定行业和州来说，风险绝非如此。
Canada is deliberately(故意地，蓄意地) trying to turn those commercial ties into political pressure. Its response to America’s 50% tariffs on $20bn-worth of Canadian exports is a package of levies of 15-50% on $20bn-worth of American goods, due to take effect on September 8th.(针对美国对200亿美元加拿大出口商品征收50%关税的举措，加拿大的回应是对200亿美元美国商品征收15%至50%的关税，该措施将于9月8日生效。) Steel and aluminium products are among those facing the heaviest tariffs, alongside cheese and agricultural equipment. Cars will continue to face existing Canadian counter-tariffs(报复性关税). “We are picking products that will target states,” said Mélanie Joly, Canada’s industry minister, on August 25th.
加拿大正刻意将这些商业联系转化为政治压力。针对美国对200亿美元加拿大出口商品征收50%关税的举措，加拿大的回应是对200亿美元美国商品征收15%至50%的关税，该措施将于9月8日生效。钢铁和铝产品是面临最高关税的商品之一，此外还有奶酪和农业设备。汽车将继续面临加拿大现有的反制关税。加拿大工业部长梅拉妮·乔利8月25日表示：“我们正在挑选针对各州的产品。”