Many germans are in shock after the unexpectedly strong showing(表现，成绩) for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)(德国选择党，极右翼政党) at state elections in Saxony-Anhalt(萨克森-安哈尔特州) on September 6th. One of them is Friedrich Merz. The chancellor sounded unusually contrite(悔悟的，懊悔的) after the results came in, describing the AfD’s landslide victory(压倒性胜利) as the most serious ballot-box defeat(选举失败，票箱失利) his Christian Democrats have suffered in years, even decades. He was less penitent(悔过的，忏悔的) when vowing not to resign—and to see through(把……进行到底) his unpopular reforms to the ailing(状况不佳的，生病的) public-pension system, ossified(僵化的，固化的) labour market and other ills(弊病，问题) plaguing(困扰，折磨) Europe’s biggest economy.
9月6日，极右翼政党德国选择党（AfD）在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中表现之强劲出人意料，许多德国人为此感到震惊，弗里德里希·默茨便是其中之一。结果出炉后，这位总理的语气罕见地透着悔意，称选择党的压倒性胜利是他领导的基民盟多年来、甚至几十年来遭遇的最严重选举挫败。但当他誓言不会辞职、并要将那些不受欢迎的改革——针对积弊重重的公共养老金体系、僵化的劳动力市场以及困扰这个欧洲最大经济体的其他种种沉疴——推行到底时，他的悔意就淡了许多。
Mr Merz’s political setback comes just as it is beginning to show signs of life(显露生机). Although industrial production unexpectedly fell in July, owing chiefly to longer-than-usual summer stoppages(停工，停产) at several car factories, GDP is looking positively sprightly(活泼的，有生气的) going by its recent moribund(死气沉沉的，垂死的) form. Output grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, compared with the first, and by 1% year on year (see chart 1). The Ifo Institute(伊弗经济研究所) for Economic Research, a respected think-tank, has raised its growth forecast for the whole year from 0.8% to 1.4%. Two other similarly august(威严的，令人敬畏的) outfits(机构，组织), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy(基尔世界经济研究所) and RWI(莱茵-威斯特伐利亚经济研究所), have both increased theirs from 0.8% to 1.3%.
默茨的政治挫折，恰好发生在德国经济开始显露生机之际。尽管7月工业生产意外下滑——主要原因是几家汽车厂夏季停产时间比往年更长——但以近期死气沉沉的表现来看，GDP 如今显得相当有活力。第二季度产出环比增长0.3%，同比增长1%（见图表1）。备受尊敬的智库伊弗经济研究所已将全年增长预期从0.8%上调至1.4%。另外两家同样权威的机构——基尔世界经济研究所和莱茵-威斯特伐利亚经济研究所——也分别将预期从0.8%上调至1.3%。
Other indicators also point to a resuscitation(复苏，复活). In 2025 inbound(流入的，入境的) foreign direct investment(外国直接投资) increased by 50%, to €86bn ($100bn, or 1.9% of GDP). In the first six months of 2026 exports rose by 3.9% year on year. In August Ifo’s export-expectations index, calculated by subtracting the share of manufacturers that think exports will fall from the share that think they will rise, was at its perkiest since before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.(8月，伊弗的出口预期指数升至2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高点；该指数用认为出口将下降的制造商比例减去认为将上升的比例计算得出。) Fewer exports are going to China and more to America (see chart 2). The decline in industrial production notwithstanding(尽管，虽然), factory orders climbed in July for a third consecutive month. Builders of artificial-intelligence data centres are snapping up(抢购，争相购买) German electrical and power equipment.
其他指标也指向经济复苏。2025年，流入德国的外国直接投资增长50%，达到860亿欧元（约合1000亿美元，占GDP的1.9%）。2026年上半年，出口同比增长3.9%。8月，伊弗的出口预期指数——用认为出口将下降的制造商比例减去认为将上升的比例计算得出——升至2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最高点。对华出口减少，对美出口增加（见图表2）。尽管工业生产下滑，7月工厂订单仍连续第三个月攀升。人工智能数据中心的建设者正抢购德国的电气和电力设备。
AfDerthought
事后选择党