WHEN GLASS-HALF-EMPTY types look at bond yields surging around the world, they blame feckless(不负责任的) politicians. In America Donald Trump is presiding over(坐视、主管) huge deficits and trying to bully the Federal Reserve into easy money(胁迫美联储放水). Politicians elsewhere are similarly blasé(满不在乎的) about borrowing, and only a bit less about central-bank independence. Higher yields reflect, on this theory, investors’ alarm that all this will lead to higher inflation.(按这套理论，收益率上升反映的是投资者担心这一切终将推高通胀。)
悲观论者看到全球债券收益率飙升，便把矛头指向不负责任的政客。在美国，唐纳德·特朗普坐视巨额赤字，还试图胁迫美联储放水。其他国家的政客同样对举债满不在乎，对央行独立性的漠视也只是稍好一点。按这套说法，收益率上升反映的是投资者担心这一切终将推高通胀。
The glass-half-full view(乐观派观点), championed(倡导、力挺) by America’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, is that bond markets are reacting to prospects(前景、预期) of faster long-term economic growth. The artificial-intelligence revolution will raise productivity in the future but needs plenty of capital in the present to build data centres and electricity generation to power them.(人工智能革命未来会提高生产率，但眼下需要大量资本来建设数据中心和为其供电的发电设施。) The public sector is thus competing for money(争夺资金) with the private sector.
乐观派——以美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特为代表——则认为，债券市场是在对长期经济增长加快的前景作出反应。人工智能革命未来会提高生产率，但眼下需要大量资本来建设数据中心和为其供电的发电设施。于是公共部门正与私人部门争夺资金。
One test of the two theories is India. The yield on ten-year Treasuries(美国国债) is up by 0.67 percentage points this year, to 4.8%. That on the equivalent Indian government securities (Gsecs) has risen by 0.37 points, to 7%. That spread(利差) remains near historic lows(接近历史低位). Whatever is causing bond yields to spike is having less of an effect on the world’s largest democracy than on its oldest one.(无论是什么在推高债券收益率，它对世界最大民主国家的影响都小于对最古老民主国家的影响。) Why?
检验这两种理论的一个样本是印度。今年十年期美国国债收益率上升0.67个百分点，至4.8%；相应的印度政府证券（Gsecs）收益率上升0.37个百分点，至7%。两者利差仍接近历史低位。无论是什么在推高债券收益率，它对世界最大民主国家的影响都小于对最古老民主国家的影响。为什么？