
JAVIER MILEI swept to power(横扫政坛上台) three years ago as a libertarian tub-thumper(煽动性演说者), promising brutal cuts to public spending in order to tame inflation(遏制通胀) and free the Argentine economy. Many analysts doubted that this aggressive, wild-haired man could possibly succeed. Mr Milei proved them wrong: annual inflation has fallen from 161% in the month before he took office to 34% in July; the economy is on track(有望、步入正轨) to grow for a second year in a row, a rarity(罕见之事) in Argentina since the end of the commodity boom(大宗商品繁荣期) in 2008. With inflation curbed, the share of Argentines who are poor has fallen by a third.(随着通胀受控,阿根廷贫困人口比例下降了三分之一。)
三年前,哈维尔·米莱以自由意志主义煽动者的姿态横扫政坛上台,承诺大幅削减公共开支,以遏制通胀、放开阿根廷经济。许多分析人士当时怀疑,这个好斗、头发蓬乱的男人根本不可能成功。米莱证明他们错了:年通胀率从他上任前一个月的161%降至7月的34%;经济有望连续第二年增长,这在2008年大宗商品繁荣结束以来的阿根廷实属罕见。随着通胀受控,阿根廷贫困人口比例下降了三分之一。
But his work is not complete. Argentines will vote in a general election in October 2027. The president’s approval ratings(支持率) are near their lowest point of his term. Although the economy is growing, that growth is slow and uneven(不均衡的). Real wages are still lower than when he took office; formal jobs have been disappearing. Many people are still struggling. Polls suggest that voters have a worse view of Mr Milei than of several champions of Peronism, the left-wing movement that favours state meddling over markets and created the economic disaster that he inherited.(民调显示,选民对米莱的评价比对几位庇隆主义代表人物还要差;庇隆主义是主张国家干预而非市场的左翼运动,正是它制造了米莱所继承的经济灾难。) The prospect of a return to the past is alarming(令人担忧的) for Argentina, and for the fate of the world’s most important experiment in economic liberalism(经济自由主义).
但他的工作尚未完成。阿根廷人将在2027年10月的大选中投票。总统的支持率已接近其任期内的最低点。尽管经济在增长,但增长缓慢且不均衡。实际工资仍低于他上任时;正规就业岗位不断消失。许多人仍在苦苦挣扎。民调显示,选民对米莱的评价比对几位庇隆主义代表人物还要差。庇隆主义是左翼运动,主张国家干预而非市场,正是它制造了米莱所继承的经济灾难。重回过去的前景对阿根廷而言令人担忧,对世界上最重要的经济自由主义实验的命运而言同样如此。
Most of Mr Milei’s economic policies are the right ones: his zealous(狂热的、执着的) commitment to budget surpluses(预算盈余) remains crucial, he is correct that outright money-printing(印钞) is the root of Argentina’s woes(困境、苦难) and he should continue slashing enterprise-shackling regulations. But today Argentines worry more about jobs than inflation. Now is the time to build on the foundations(在基础上更进一步) he has laid and focus more on growth, even if that means a slightly slower decline in inflation.
米莱的多数经济政策方向正确:他对预算盈余的执着至关重要;他认为无节制的印钞是阿根廷困境的根源,这一点没错;他还应继续大刀阔斧地削减束缚企业的监管。但如今阿根廷人更担心就业,而非通胀。现在正是时候在他打下的基础上更进一步,把更多精力放在增长上,即便这意味着通胀下降的速度略微放缓。