He has not been in the job long. But Kevin Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is about to face a crucial interest-rate meeting on September 15th and 16th. The decision before him and his colleagues has higher stakes(赌注；利害关系) than at any Fed meeting of the past few years. And it is among the least predictable, partly because Mr Warsh has deliberately reduced the transparency(透明度) of the central bank’s reasoning. Markets see coin-toss odds(五五开、各半的概率) between a rate increase of 25 basis points(基点（万分之一）) (0.25 percentage points) and no change.
他上任时间还不长。但美联储主席凯文·沃什即将面临9月15日至16日一场至关重要的利率会议。摆在他和同僚面前的这个决定，赌注比过去几年任何一次美联储会议都高。这也是最难预测的会议之一，部分原因是沃什刻意降低了央行决策理由的透明度。市场认为加息25个基点（0.25个百分点）与按兵不动的概率各占一半。
The decision may be on a knife-edge(悬于一线、胜负难料), but it would be a mistake for the Fed to keep monetary policy the same. Both on a straightforward reading of America’s economy, and in order to preserve the wavering credibility of the central bank, to raise interest rates would be better.(无论从对美国经济的直接解读来看，还是为了维护央行岌岌可危的信誉，加息都更为可取。)
这一决定或许悬于一线，但美联储维持货币政策不变将是错误的。无论从对美国经济的直接解读来看，还是为了维护央行岌岌可危的信誉，加息都更为可取。
Judged on the economic fundamentals, the case for(支持……的理由) higher rates is solid though not unanswerable(无可辩驳的). Inflation still sits stubbornly(顽固地、倔强地) above the Fed’s 2% target. So does core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, both of which have leapt since the war started with Iran.(剔除能源和食品价格的核心通胀也是如此，而这两类价格自与伊朗开战以来都已飙升。) These data are not a slam dunk(十拿九稳的事): The Economist’s own, fancier, predictive-inflation gauge(指标、衡量标准) is only modestly above target and has been falling, and wage growth is lower than it was. Inflation might come down on its own as the one-off(一次性的) impulses to prices from tariffs and the war with Iran dissipate(消散、消退). But that cannot be assumed after five years in which price rises have exceeded the Fed’s target.(但在物价涨幅连续五年超过美联储目标之后，不能想当然地认为会如此。) With such a record, it is better to worry too much than too little(宁可多虑，不可少虑).
从经济基本面来看，支持加息的理由是坚实的，尽管并非无懈可击。通胀仍顽固地高于美联储2%的目标。剔除能源和食品价格的核心通胀也是如此，而这两类价格自与伊朗开战以来都已飙升。这些数据并非铁证：《经济学人》自己更精细的预测性通胀指标仅略高于目标，且一直在下降，工资增长也比过去低。随着关税和与伊朗战争对价格的一次性冲击消退，通胀或许会自行回落。但在物价涨幅连续五年超过美联储目标之后，不能想当然地认为会如此。有了这样的记录，宁可过度担忧，也不可掉以轻心。
Don’t yield
不要屈服