
For Germany, it is a red alert(红色警报). On September 6th the Alternative for Germany (AfD)(德国选择党,右翼民粹政党) won 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt(萨克森-安哈尔特州,德国东部联邦州). A party that employs unrepentant(不悔改的) former neo-Nazis and has been labelled “extremist(极端主义的)” by the intelligence service is on the cusp of(即将进入……之际) becoming the first populist-right group to run one of Germany’s 16 states since 1945.
对德国而言,这是一次红色警报。9月6日,德国选择党(AfD)在萨克森-安哈尔特州赢得44%的选票。这个雇用不悔改的前纳粹分子、被情报机构定性为“极端主义”的政党,即将成为1945年以来首个执掌德国16个联邦州之一的右翼民粹团体。
To take office the AfD still needs allies or defections(倒戈,叛逃). That should not blind Germany to the risk. The party was always going to do well in Saxony-Anhalt, which is depopulated(人口减少的), deprived(贫困的,被剥夺的) and in the east, where party loyalties are weak. But in national polls the AfD now also has a lead, of eight points, over the centre-right CDU/CSU(德国基民盟/基社盟,中右翼联盟), led by Friedrich Merz(弗里德里希·默茨,德国总理), the chancellor. A federal election today might require a coalition of every centrist party to keep it from power.
要上台执政,AfD仍需要盟友或倒戈者。但这不应让德国对风险视而不见。该党在萨克森-安哈尔特州本就注定表现不俗——那里人口流失、经济凋敝、地处东部,选民对政党的忠诚度薄弱。但在全国民调中,AfD如今也领先总理弗里德里希·默茨领导的中右翼基民盟/基社盟八个百分点。若今天举行联邦大选,可能需所有中间派政党联合组阁才能阻止其掌权。
Germany’s centrists have long thought that a firewall(防火墙,此处指政治隔离线) excluding the AfD from coalitions could keep it at bay. But behind this Brandmauer(防火墙,德国主流政党不与AfD合作的共识) the party has grown and radicalised(激进化), pursuing racist fantasies of “remigration(再移民,遣返移民)”, rapprochement(和解,恢复友好关系) with Russia and exit from the European Union and euro. Its manifesto for Saxony-Anhalt, which called for a radical reshaping of the state’s education, culture, media and civil service, proved alarmingly popular.(其在萨克森-安哈尔特州的竞选纲领呼吁对该州的教育、文化、媒体和公务员体系进行彻底重塑,其受欢迎程度令人警觉。)
德国中间派长期认为,通过“防火墙”将AfD排除在联合政府之外就能将其遏制。但在这道“防火墙”(Brandmauer)背后,该党不断壮大并走向激进化,追逐“再移民”的种族主义幻想、与俄罗斯缓和关系,以及退出欧盟和欧元区。其在萨克森-安哈尔特州的竞选纲领呼吁对该州的教育、文化、媒体和公务员体系进行彻底重塑,其受欢迎程度令人警觉。