Listen to donald trump and normality reigns(盛行，主宰) in the world’s most contested waterway(全球争夺最激烈的航道). America and Iran may be firing again, but “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK,” declared the president on September 3rd. He claims that 18m barrels a day (b/d) now pass through the strait(海峡)—just shy of(略低于，接近) the pre-war average of 20m. J.D. Vance, his vice-president, says Iran’s control of Hormuz is “effectively(实际上，基本上) gone”.
听唐纳德·特朗普怎么说，这条全球争夺最激烈的航道似乎已恢复正常。美伊或许又交上了火，但总统在9月3日宣称：“霍尔木兹的石油运量回来了。”他声称如今每天有1800万桶石油通过海峡，仅略低于战前2000万桶的均值。副总统J.D.万斯则表示，伊朗对霍尔木兹的控制“实际上已经不复存在”。
“A big lie,” counters(反驳，回击) Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official. He puts daily crossings at seven or eight ships, far below the 30-40 that Mr Trump’s camp(特朗普阵营) claims. Ship-trackers are sceptical(持怀疑态度的), too: Kpler, a data firm, has outflow(外流量，流出量) below 5m b/d in the week to August 30th (see chart). Even the Joint Maritime Information Centre, linked to America’s navy, cannot square its count of nearly 30 daily passages with the single digits independent trackers typically report.(就连与美国海军有关联的联合海事信息中心，也无法让其统计的近30次日通行量与独立追踪机构通常报告的个位数相吻合。)
“弥天大谎，”伊朗最高安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊反驳道。他称每日通过船只仅七八艘，远低于特朗普阵营声称的30至40艘。船舶追踪机构同样持怀疑态度：数据公司Kpler显示，截至8月30日当周的外运量不足500万桶/日（见图表）。就连与美国海军有关联的联合海事信息中心，也无法让其统计的近30次日通行量与独立追踪机构通常报告的个位数相吻合。
Neither side has much incentive(动力，激励) to show its workings(公开推算过程), notes Shahin Iraninejad of gssi, a sovereign-risk(主权风险的) advisory firm. America wants voters to believe the millions of dollars it splashes(挥霍，大把花钱) daily on escorting tankers in the Gulf are paying off(见效，有回报); Iran wants to appear in control of the strait, even as more oil slips through. But reality matters. The more Gulf exports are throttled(被压制，被遏制), the deeper importers must dip into stocks(动用库存) or bid up(抬价竞购) oil elsewhere; Brent crude(布伦特原油，全球油价基准) is back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. So who is closer to the truth?
主权风险咨询公司GSSI的沙欣·伊拉尼内贾德指出，双方都没有多少动力公开自己的推算过程。美国希望选民相信，它每天在波斯湾为油轮护航所耗费的数百万美元正在见效；伊朗则希望显得仍掌控着海峡，即便更多石油正悄悄流出。但现实很重要。海湾出口被压制得越厉害，进口国就越得动用库存，或到别处高价抢购石油；布伦特原油自7月以来首次重回每桶100美元上方。那么，谁更接近真相？